🧪 You're Getting Robbed—And You Don’t Even Know It

Plus: Trump proceeds with steel tariffs

March 12, 2025

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Good Morning!

You could spend hours sifting through headlines, or you could get the real market-moving insights right here. We cut through the noise, toss out the fluff, and tell you what actually matters—with just the right amount of attitude.

Inflation jitters are keeping traders on edge, Trump’s tariffs are shaking up global trade, and Ukraine just brokered a ceasefire deal—but will Russia play along? Oh, and Reddit stock is pumping while Bitcoin just erased all post-election gains. Just another day in the markets.

Let’s get into it 👇

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🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Stock Markets

12th March, 2025

Crypto

Forex/Commodities

Upcoming Earnings

📅 WED.

Adobe (ADBE), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

📅 THURS.

Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), DocuSign (DOCU)

📅 FRI.

Li Auto (LI)

📈 What’s Moving Markets Today?

🔥 Markets Tiptoe Higher: Waiting for Inflation Data

The market is giving off some serious "hurry up and wait" vibes this morning. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the green as investors eye a key inflation report and brace for more of President Trump's signature tariff turbulence. Wall Street got a rude wake-up call yesterday after a rollercoaster session driven by fresh trade war threats. Now, traders are hoping for some clarity—though with Trump in the mix, who are we kidding?

📌 Key Moves:

  • 🌟 S&P 500 Futures: Up 0.3%

  • 🌆 Nasdaq 100 Futures: Up 0.4%

  • 📈 Dow Futures: Up 0.2%

📈 Inflation Watch: Will CPI Cool Off?

All eyes are on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report dropping today. This is the first full inflation readout of Trump’s second term, and traders are desperate to see whether his tariff antics are starting to heat up prices—or whether the Fed will have an excuse to cut rates sooner rather than later.

📌 What’s Expected:

  • 🔄 Year-over-Year Inflation: Forecast to cool to 2.9% from 3.0%

  • 🌐 Month-over-Month: Expected at 0.3%, down from 0.5%

  • 🌐 Federal Reserve Watch: Next rate meeting is March 18-19, and Powell’s waiting to see if inflation justifies a cut.

Wait Goodbye GIF by Silicon Valley

POV: Waiting for the CPI Index

👉 If inflation surprises higher? The Fed could stay in wait-and-see mode, frustrating markets.
👈 If inflation cools faster? More hope for rate cuts, and stocks might finally get their long-awaited sugar rush.

🏢 Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Are Back

Trump’s latest steel and aluminum tariffs kicked in today, with a broad 25% tax now hitting imports from all countries. Domestic producers are cheering, but economists warn that this could send prices of everyday goods soaring—think tin cans, cars, and appliances.

📌 Key Takeaways:

  • 🛠️ 25% Tariffs: Covering steel and aluminum imports globally

  • 💼 Market Impact: Higher costs could slow economic growth

  • 🇪🇺 EU Response: Plans €26 billion in countermeasures against U.S. goods

  • 🇨🇦 Canada Furious: As top supplier, it's calling the move "economic bullying."

While this helps U.S. metal producers in the short run, don’t be surprised if retaliatory tariffs from trading partners start hitting American exports soon. Buckle up.

🌎 U.S. Reboots Security Aid to Ukraine

After some serious diplomatic turbulence, the U.S. and Ukraine are back on speaking terms. The Biden-Trump Cold War vibes may have cooled just enough for Washington to restart intelligence sharing and military aid to Kyiv.

📌 The Latest:

  • 🇺🇦 Ceasefire Agreement: Ukraine agreed to a 30-day pause in fighting

  • 🇺🇸 U.S. Aid Resumes: Includes military support and intelligence sharing

  • 🌍 Russia’s Next Move: The Kremlin hasn’t responded yet

Ukraine is still waiting on Moscow to officially sign off on the ceasefire, and knowing Putin, that’s far from a sure thing. Stay tuned.

⛽ Oil Prices Bounce After Hitting Multi-Year Lows

Oil prices have been struggling big time, but today, we’re seeing a small rebound. The trigger? Supply concerns from Russia and traders watching U.S. inflation data like hawks.

📌 Market Moves:

  • 🌋 Oil Prices: Recovering after hitting three-year lows

  • 🔄 Inflation’s Role: If CPI is weaker, oil might climb as traders expect Fed rate cuts

  • 🚨 Ukraine’s Attack: Kyiv claims it hit a major Russian refinery, which could tighten supply

Even with today’s bounce, oil sentiment is still fragile, and if demand concerns linger, we could see another leg lower soon.

🚀 The Takeaway: Stay Nimble

Between inflation uncertainty, Trump’s tariff whiplash, and geopolitical chess games, the market is one big guessing game right now.

🔄 What to watch next:

  • CPI data reaction—will it fuel rate cut hopes or crush them?

  • More tariff fallout—who hits back next?

  • Ukraine-Russia tensions—is the ceasefire real, or just a headline?

The playbook? Stay flexible, keep an eye on risk, and don’t trust the first move. This market is tricky, and if you blink, you might miss your shot.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab