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What a week. The last five sessions have delivered Micron's blowout, Apple's brutal price hike, PCE hitting a three-year high, Bitcoin crashing to a 21-month low, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacking a cargo ship in the Strait just days after the peace deal was signed. The market that was at all-time highs three weeks ago is now fighting on every front simultaneously.
May PCE came in at 4.1% year-on-year Thursday - the highest reading since April 2023 - locking in BofA's three-hike thesis and sending Bitcoin to $58,000 in its worst crash of the year. Micron delivered the other side of the coin: $41.46 billion in revenue against a $35.85 billion estimate, EPS of $25.11 against $20.78 expected, and Q4 guidance that crushed every model on the Street. The AI memory trade just got a clean bill of health - but the macro overhead is suffocating everything above it.
Apple fell 6% after announcing its largest hardware price hike in years across Mac, iPad, and accessories - explicitly citing memory chip costs - which is deeply ironic the same day Micron surged 17%. Meanwhile Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, putting the ceasefire directly under threat and pushing oil back above $75. This morning, Asian markets are down again - KOSPI -3%, Nikkei -3% - and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.6%. The S&P has now given back all its gains since the Iran peace deal. Multiple Fed officials speak today. Every word matters.
🏛️ Stock Markets
Micron surges 17% - blowout earnings confirm AI memory demand is real - Micron reported Q3 EPS of $25.11 against the $20.78 estimate, with revenue quadrupling year-on-year to $41.46 billion against a $35.85 billion consensus. The AI memory bear case is officially dead. Everything else in the market is still a mess.
PCE hits 4.1% - highest since April 2023, BofA's three-hike call confirmed - The PCE price index rose 4.1% year-on-year in May, its highest reading since April 2023, with core PCE climbing 3.4% - the highest since October 2023. Consumer spending also beat at +0.7% and Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%. The Fed has zero reason to cut.
Apple falls 6% - largest hardware price hike in years on memory cost surge - Apple raised prices across its entire Mac, iPad, and accessories lineup, citing surging memory chip costs - sending its stock down more than 6% for its worst day since February, dragging the Nasdaq to a fourth consecutive loss. The same chips that made Micron's quarter are now bleeding Apple's margins.
Iran attacks cargo ship in the Strait - ceasefire under immediate threat - Iran's Revolutionary Guard attacked a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, damaging the vessel's bridge, pushing WTI up 2.3% to $71.46 and Brent to $75.08. The ceasefire lasted less than two weeks before the first test.
Nasdaq futures -1.6%, KOSPI -8% this morning - second Asian meltdown of the week - South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8% triggering a 20-minute trading halt, while a broader Asian gauge dropped 3.2% as Apple's supplier stocks led the regional selloff. The Mag-7 valuation reckoning is spreading globally.
Qualcomm surges 12% after hours - Meta and Microsoft backing AI inference chips - Qualcomm jumped 12% in after-hours trading after doubling its 2029 non-handset revenue projection to $40 billion, backed by new partnerships with Meta and Microsoft on AI inference chips. The AI chip story is alive - just migrating away from memory and toward inference.
Alphabet joins the Dow on Monday - Verizon out - Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average before Monday's open, with S&P Global citing Alphabet's diversified portfolio spanning AI, cloud, and autonomous vehicles as a more representative addition. Every Dow-tracking fund has to buy it Monday morning.
Multiple Fed officials speak today - first post-PCE commentary - Federal Reserve officials including John Williams are scheduled to speak Friday following the June FOMC meeting, with markets focused on whether 4.1% PCE locks in the September rate hike or opens the door to July action. Every word gets parsed after this week's data.
₿ Crypto
Bitcoin crashed to $58,115 Thursday - 21-month low, $1.26 billion liquidated - Over 209,000 traders were liquidated across crypto markets in 24 hours as BTC hit its lowest level since September 2024, with $460 million in positions wiped in just one hour following the PCE print. Belovy called this move. The DXY analysis was right.
Bitcoin bouncing to ~$60K this morning - but it's recovery not reversal - Bitcoin rebounded to around $60,030 after testing the $58,000-$60,000 support zone, with institutional dip buyers stepping in after leveraged positions were flushed - but Nasdaq futures down 1.6% this morning make the bounce fragile. The $59K floor held for now. Barely.
Fear & Greed hits 13 - lowest reading of the entire bear market - The Fear & Greed Index closed Thursday at 13, its lowest reading of the entire 2026 bear market, with BTC down 5% on the week and ETH, XRP, and Solana all posting steeper losses. Extreme fear at extremes has historically preceded big moves. The direction depends entirely on what the Fed signals next.
MiCA deadline July 1 adding selling pressure to crypto - With Europe's MiCA regulation transition period ending July 1, compliant capital is taking profits and prioritising cash ahead of the policy deadline - adding a quarter-end technical selling layer on top of already severe macro pressure. One more headwind that disappears after Tuesday.
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‘til next time,
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