We closed $UPS. Here's the honest truth.

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🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

The market just got a boost from the one place it needed most - the White House. Stocks climbed and oil dropped after Trump signaled progress toward a final agreement with Iran, giving record-high global equities fresh momentum, with Asian equities hitting record levels overnight and South Korea's market jumping 5% to an all-time high. After a brutal Monday selloff triggered by fresh Iranian attacks on US warships, the recovery this week has been swift - and it's almost entirely geopolitical in nature.

The week's big corporate story was Palantir. Shares fell nearly 3% on Tuesday even as the company posted Q1 adjusted EPS of 33 cents, beating the 28 cents expected. Beat the number. Still sold. Sound familiar? This market has a short attention span for earnings beats when macro uncertainty is this high - and $100+ oil is the tax on everything. One analyst put it bluntly this week, saying there is "extremely misplaced euphoria" among investors who are dismissing the ongoing energy squeeze, and warning that "we're sleepwalking into potentially a pretty big recession." That's not the consensus view. But it's the one worth keeping in the back of your mind.

For now, the bulls are running the tape. The S&P 500 rose 0.81% on Tuesday to close at a fresh all-time high of 7,259.22, the Nasdaq gained 1.03% to 25,326, and the Dow added 356 points - all while oil dropped nearly 4%. The ceasefire is holding, earnings are landing, and the path of least resistance is still higher. But with the Warsh Fed era beginning May 15, jobs data on Friday, and $80K Bitcoin resistance overhead, there's no shortage of catalysts that could flip the script before the week is out.

🏛️ Stock Markets

S&P 500 hits fresh all-time high Tuesday - up for the third time in a week - The S&P 500 closed at 7,259.22 on Tuesday, a new record, as oil prices slid and ceasefire optimism returned after Monday's sharp selloff. The market went from -1% Monday to a new all-time high Tuesday. That's the tape we're in.
Trump signals Iran deal progress - markets immediately rip higher - Trump's comments about progress toward a final Iran agreement sent Asian equities to records overnight, with South Korea jumping 5% and Samsung reaching a $1 trillion valuation for the first time. Every positive Iran headline is worth 1-2% in equities and $5 in oil. The geopolitical trade is alive and well.
Palantir beats earnings - falls 3% anyway - PLTR posted Q1 adjusted EPS of 33 cents against the 28 cents expected but shares fell nearly 3% on the session. The setup we flagged last week played out exactly as warned - a binary catalyst, a beat, and a selloff. Risk management on earnings plays isn't optional. It's survival.
Oil drops back toward $102 on ceasefire optimism - WTI crude dipped 3.9% to settle at $102.27 per barrel on Tuesday, while Brent lost 4% to close at $109.87 as the ceasefire held and a ship successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection. Every dollar lower in crude takes inflation pressure off the Fed and rate hike fears off the table. This number matters more than any earnings print right now.
Pinterest surges 15% on strong Q2 guidance - Pinterest shares popped 15% after Q2 revenue guidance came in at $1.13-1.15 billion, topping the $1.11 billion analyst estimate. Nobody's talking about Pinterest - which is exactly when you should be paying attention to it.
PayPal falls 9% despite earnings beat - Q2 guidance is the problem - PayPal fell 9% in early trading despite earnings and revenue beating expectations, as Q2 guidance came in below estimates, though the company reiterated its full-year outlook. Beats mean nothing when the forward guide disappoints. The market's playing 3D chess on every report this season.
AMD reports today - the chip trade's next test - Advanced Micro Devices rebounded 2% Tuesday ahead of its earnings report, after falling 5% Monday. HSBC downgraded the stock saying it sees 2026 server upside capped by foundry capacity constraints. If AMD disappoints after Nvidia guided down China revenue to zero, the semiconductor trade gets a lot more complicated heading into Nvidia's May 20 report.
"Sleepwalking into recession" - one analyst's warning the market is ignoring - One analyst warned this week of "extremely misplaced euphoria" among investors, saying oil prices have surged more than 50% since the Iran conflict began and that equity markets should be "a lot, lot weaker." The bull market is real. The risk isn't gone. Hold both thoughts at once.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin knocking on $80K - the most important level of the year - Bitcoin hasn't closed above the 200-day moving average at $83,842 since January 2026. The $80K level is the first gate - close a full week above $82,228 and the range it's been stuck in since February likely breaks. Simple setup. Big implications. Watch the weekly close.
Strategy Q1 earnings landed Monday - 818,334 BTC and $14B in paper losses - Strategy holds 818,334 BTC at an average price of $75,537 per coin. During Q1, BTC crashed to $62,000, meaning the company was sitting on roughly $14.46 billion in paper losses. Whether Michael Saylor keeps buying or pauses is the most watched signal in crypto right now. If the accumulation continues, BTC has a floor with a name on it. If it pauses, the market's biggest buyer just stepped back.
Fear & Greed Index climbs to 40 - slowly leaving Extreme Fear - The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 40, in Fear territory, with 23 technical indicators signalling bullish and 10 signalling bearish. Not euphoria. Not capitulation. The kind of ambiguous zone where real moves tend to start quietly.
Iran deal = crypto catalyst - the macro ceiling could lift fast - If the ceasefire sticks and oil falls back below $90, risk assets including crypto get room to rally. If the deal falls apart and Iran fully closes the Strait of Hormuz, Brent could spike toward $150 - and that kind of macro shock historically drags Bitcoin down with everything else. Bitcoin's next big move is being decided in a negotiating room, not on a chart.

Where to Invest $100,000 Right Now, According to Experts

Investors face a dilemma. When the S&P 500 finished its worst quarter since 2022 last month, diversifiers like bonds and bitcoin fell too.

Even with the turnaround in mid-April, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Vanguard have projected low-single-digit annualized returns from 2024-2034.

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One answer that surfaced for a second time? Art.

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Why?

Appreciation. The ArtPrice100 Index outpaced the S&P 500 overall from 2000 to 2025
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^{*According to Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at}^{masterworks.com/cd}^.

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We Closed $UPS - And Here's Exactly Why

Quick update on $UPS: position closed. 2% gain - technically a win. Realistically, it was a grind that went nowhere fast, and in this market, flat money is losing money.

Here's the honest breakdown. We stay transparent here.

The Play

Entry: Long $UPS
Exit: Closed at approximately break-even (+2%)
Result: Capital preserved to deploy elsewhere - it’s a win.

The Catalyst (For Closing)

UPS is a structurally messy name right now. Amazon just launched "Amazon Supply Chain Services," directly targeting third-party logistics - hitting UPS shares immediately. On top of that, Q1 showed a 2.3% decline in domestic package revenue, the company is closing 23 facilities with 27 more planned, and cutting 30,000 jobs including 7,500 driver positions. That's a lot of execution risk baked into a stock trading near $100.

Then on Monday, the stock fell nearly 10% in a single session. UPS beat Q1 EPS at $1.07 against the $1.03 estimate but shares still dropped sharply - with the CEO saying it was "too early" to raise guidance despite meeting estimates. Beat the number. Guided cautiously. Got sold. Classic late-cycle logistics story.

Our Take

Sometimes the best trade is the one you get out of. UPS isn't broken as a business - Wall Street still has a consensus price target around $110 and the Q2 earnings on July 28 will be the next real test for the thesis. But with Amazon eating its lunch, oil above $100 inflating fuel costs, and a CEO who won't raise guidance, the stock needs a lot of things to go right simultaneously to make meaningful upside from here.

Opportunity cost is a real thing. Sitting in a flat name while better setups are forming elsewhere isn't discipline - it's stubbornness. Capital moves to where it's treated best. Onwards.

Real Talk

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- The TradingLab Team