April CPI hits 3.8% - highest since January 2024, hotter than every estimate - Headline CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year in April against a 3.7% consensus, while core CPI came in at 2.8% - also above the 2.7% estimate. Energy commodity inflation hit 29.2%, gasoline 28.4%, and airfare 20.7%. The Iran war is showing up in every price you pay. The Fed's 2% target has never looked further away.

PPI drops this morning - the inflation number after the inflation number - April PPI lands at 8:30am ET. The March PPI showed final demand prices rising 4.0% year-over-year - the largest annual increase since February 2023. A hot print today extends the higher-for-longer trade and pushes yields higher. If this comes in hot after Tuesday's CPI, the rate hike conversation stops being theoretical.

Nvidia earnings tonight - the AI trade's final exam - Nvidia reports Q1 fiscal year 2027 results after the close tonight with the conference call at 2pm PT. The interaction between inflation data, regulatory news, and Nvidia's earnings sentiment determines the environment traders are working in for the rest of May. One number from Jensen Huang tonight moves the entire semiconductor sector tomorrow morning.

Qualcomm craters 13% - the chip selloff nobody saw coming - Qualcomm plummeted 13% on Tuesday - its worst session since 2020 - while Intel dropped 8% and the iShares Semiconductor ETF sank 5%, as hot CPI data sent investors into risk-off mode. Last week Qualcomm surged 16% on a mystery hyperscaler deal. This week it gave most of it back. Earnings season volatility is brutal.

Trump in China with the entire US tech establishment - Apple CEO Tim Cook, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon are all part of Trump's delegation to China for his May 14-15 summit with Xi Jinping. Trade, tariffs, Taiwan, AI, and Iran logistics all on the agenda. A constructive outcome weakens the dollar and is bullish for risk assets. A tense one does the opposite.

Kevin Warsh confirmed - Powell era ends May 15 - Warsh's nomination cleared a key Senate hurdle this week. Powell's term officially ends May 15. Markets face immediate questions about how the new Fed chair will approach inflation, rates, and communication with 3.8% CPI as his first inheritance. Warsh is dovish on rates but hawkish on the balance sheet. In this macro environment, that tension gets tested immediately.

Cerebras Systems IPO pricing today - the biggest listing of 2026 - Cerebras Systems - the AI inference company with new partnerships with Amazon and OpenAI - is pricing its IPO today ahead of listing on Thursday, calling itself the "market leader in high-speed AI inference." The biggest IPO of the year landing in the middle of an inflation shock and Nvidia earnings week. Timing is everything.

GameStop tries to buy eBay for $56 billion - gets humiliated - eBay rejected GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen's unsolicited $56 billion takeover bid, calling it "neither credible nor attractive" and noting that GameStop - valued at roughly $10.3 billion - was attempting to acquire a company worth $48 billion. Ryan Cohen tried to buy something five times the size of GameStop. eBay said no in the most polite corporate burn of 2026.

Trump warns Iran ceasefire is "on life support" - oil back above $100 - Trump warned the fragile US-Iran truce is on "life support," sending oil prices climbing nearly 3% on Monday, with Brent settling at $104.21 and WTI at $98.07. The peace deal trade is still the single biggest macro lever in this market. Every threat to it shows up immediately in oil, yields, and equities.

Bitcoin holds $80K after CPI shock - resilience or just a pause? - Bitcoin dipped to $79,879 immediately after the CPI print, then recovered to $81,208. The key resistance level is $83,700 - the average cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF holders - which has capped every rally attempt since February. BTC absorbed a 3.8% CPI print and barely flinched. That's either impressive strength or a delayed reaction. Today's PPI is the next test.

Crypto funds pull in $858 million last week - biggest weekly inflow of 2026 - CoinShares reported $858 million in global crypto fund inflows last week - Bitcoin products led with $706 million, Ether at $77 million, Solana at $48 million, and XRP at $40 million. The most telling data point: $14 million in outflows from bitcoin short positions - the largest weekly short unwind of 2026. Institutional money is flowing in while retail shorts are getting squeezed out. That's not a bearish setup.

CLARITY Act markup hits the Senate this week - crypto's regulatory moment - The CLARITY Act markup is scheduled for Thursday in the Senate Banking Committee. The bill would establish clear rules for crypto exchanges, token classification, and stablecoin issuance in the US. Polymarket had odds of passage in 2026 at 60-70% before this week's banking lobby pushback. This is the legislation that unlocks institutional money. It either advances this week or stalls - either way, the market reacts.

Warsh's first act as Fed chair could be the biggest crypto catalyst of May - Warsh is widely viewed as favouring lower interest rates than Powell, which could increase demand for risk assets including Bitcoin. However, his hawkish stance on the $7 trillion balance sheet could steepen the yield curve and tighten liquidity. Lower rates = bullish crypto. Tighter balance sheet = bearish liquidity. Warsh is both. How he balances them in his first 30 days sets the tone for the rest of 2026.