The three trading habits that made this year work for me

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🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Nvidia delivered. Revenue of $81.6 billion - beating the $78.9 billion estimate. EPS of $1.87 - beating the $1.76 expectation. Q2 guidance of $91 billion. An $80 billion share buyback. A 25x dividend increase. It was about as clean a blowout as the market could have hoped for - and yet futures were volatile after-hours, because when the bar is this high, even perfection gets questioned. Data Center now accounts for more than 90% of Nvidia's revenue, and the guidance excludes any China revenue entirely - meaning the reopened H200 market is pure upside not yet priced in.

The other blockbuster of the week: SpaceX officially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC on Wednesday night, targeting a $2 trillion valuation and raising up to $80 billion - the largest IPO in history. The headline number is staggering. The fine print is complicated: the company lost $4.3 billion in Q1 2026 alone, has $41 billion in accumulated losses, and Elon Musk controls 85% of voting power. Starlink is genuinely printing money - $1.19 billion in Q1 operating income - but it's being swallowed by the xAI segment's $2.5 billion quarterly operating loss. Investor enthusiasm will be real. So will the governance questions.

On the macro front, the S&P 500 is on track for its eighth straight weekly gain this morning, with futures up 0.2% - boosted by a bogus report on Thursday that a US-Iran draft resolution was "near" that sent stocks and oil in opposite directions before the story fell apart. The peace deal trade is still the most powerful single lever in this market. Every rumour moves it 1-2%. A real deal would be historic.

🏛️ Stock Markets

Nvidia crushes earnings - $81.6B revenue, $91B guidance, $80B buyback - Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 EPS of $1.87 on revenue of $81.62 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $1.78 EPS and $79.2 billion in revenue. The company guided for approximately $91 billion in Q2 revenue, announced an $80 billion share repurchase, and raised its dividend sharply. Beat. Guided up. Bought back $80 billion. Raised the dividend 25x. The AI infrastructure story is not slowing down.
SpaceX files its IPO prospectus - $2 trillion valuation, $41 billion in losses - Starlink generated revenue of $3.26 billion and operating income of $1.19 billion in Q1 2026 alone, while the SpaceXAI segment - which includes xAI - posted revenue of $818 million and an operating loss of $2.47 billion in the same quarter. Musk controls 85.1% of voting power via dual-class shares. Starlink is the real business. xAI is burning billions. Musk controls everything. Price accordingly.
S&P 500 on track for eighth straight weekly gain - S&P 500 futures gained 0.18% Friday morning after the index climbed 0.2% Thursday. The benchmark is up 0.5% week to date and on track for its eighth consecutive weekly gain, with the Dow up 1.5% on the week. Eight weeks straight. Even through bond yield shocks, Iranian threats, and PPI prints from hell. That's a bull market.
Walmart falls 2% - full-year outlook disappoints, blames Iran for higher costs - Walmart shares fell nearly 2% Thursday after the retail giant issued a weaker-than-expected full-year outlook, forecasting adjusted EPS of $2.75-$2.85 against the $2.91 estimate, and reporting a slowdown in profit growth as it absorbed higher fuel costs linked to the Iran conflict. When the world's largest retailer explicitly blames a war for missing guidance, the macro damage is broader than oil prices on a chart.
Ralph Lauren surges 10% on earnings beat and strong guidance - Ralph Lauren shares surged more than 10% Thursday after reporting stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings and issuing upbeat fiscal 2027 guidance. The luxury consumer is still spending. The budget consumer - Walmart's customer - is feeling the squeeze. The bifurcation in the American economy is showing up in earnings season.
Samsung strike called off - labor deal reached - Samsung announced management and labor reached a preliminary agreement including a 10.5% performance bonus allocation, leading the union to suspend its planned 18-day strike that had been scheduled from May 21 to June 7. The semiconductor supply chain risk we flagged last week just got significantly reduced. Good news for every chipmaker dependent on Samsung memory.
IBM gains 6% on $2 billion US quantum computing funding package - IBM gained 6.2% after the US Commerce Department announced a $2 billion funding package for the quantum computing sector. Quantum is the trade nobody's talking about while everyone watches AI. The government just put $2 billion on the table.
Iran "near" draft resolution report moves markets - then gets walked back - A report that a final draft resolution to the US-Iran conflict was expected "as soon as today" sent stocks sharply higher and oil below $100 intraday Thursday - before the story was questioned and partially walked back. The Iran peace trade moved the market 1-2% on a single unverified report. Imagine what a real deal does. That gap is still where the biggest single trade of 2026 lives.
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₿ Crypto

Bitcoin holds $77K as Nvidia beat lifts risk sentiment - Bitcoin miners and data center stocks tied to AI rose after Nvidia's blowout earnings, with BTC holding around $77,000 as the risk-on tone from the earnings beat provided a near-term floor for digital assets. Nvidia beats = AI capex intact = risk-on = crypto holds. The correlation is real and it played out exactly as expected.
SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoin - worth ~$1.45 billion at current prices - Per SpaceX's IPO prospectus, the company held 18,712 BTC as of March 31 with a cost basis of $661 million and a fair value of $1.293 billion at quarter end - closer to $1.45 billion at current prices. The world's most anticipated IPO just disclosed a $1.45 billion Bitcoin position. Add it to the list of institutional balance sheets with BTC on them.
Iran deal rumour sends oil below $100 - crypto's macro ceiling lifts briefly - Oil briefly fell below $100 a barrel Thursday on the Iran draft resolution report, providing a temporary lift to risk assets including crypto before the story was questioned. Oil below $100 = inflation eases = Fed pivots = crypto rallies. That's still the cleanest macro path to a new BTC all-time high. It just hasn't happened yet.

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$306,574 in 12 months. Here's the honest breakdown.

That chart isn't a highlight reel. It's a full year of roughly 10 trades — entered patiently, sized correctly, and held with discipline through one of the most chaotic macro environments in recent memory. An Iran war. A Fed chair change. 3.8% inflation. 30-year yields at 19-year highs.

The line kept climbing anyway.

Here's the lesson most traders miss: you don't need to be right often. You need to be right when it matters.

The biggest mistake retail traders make is confusing activity with progress. More trades doesn't mean more profit. More screen time doesn't mean better entries. The traders who consistently build wealth do the opposite of what feels natural — they wait longer, size up only when the setup is undeniable, and do nothing when nothing is there.

That's boring. That's also what produces the chart above.

The three habits that made this year work:

1. Patience over frequency. ~10 trades in 12 months. Most people take 10 trades a week. Less is more.

2. Risk-first thinking. Every entry started with the stop loss, not the target. Know what you're risking before you think about what you're making.

3. Sitting on your hands during noise. Iran headlines, Fed drama, earnings volatility — none of it triggered a trade unless the setup was already there. The macro was context, not a signal.

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