The market just broke a 75-year record

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🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

What a week. The S&P 500 has done something it's never done before - traders were celebrating on the NYSE floor Tuesday as the index closed above 7,000 for the first time in history, (CNBC) capping a remarkable recovery from a war that had this market in correction territory just weeks ago.

The driver is simple: peace deal optimism. Trump confirmed Thursday that Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day ceasefire, removing a key sticking point in US-Iran negotiations (Yahoo Finance) - and markets are running with it. The Nasdaq has now posted 12 consecutive green sessions, its longest winning streak since 2009, (CNBC) with Big Tech leading every single one of them. Earnings have helped too - TSMC, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley all delivered solid numbers this week, confirming the underlying corporate picture hasn't fallen apart.

But here's the thing nobody wants to say out loud: as one analyst put it, "headlines can only drive a market so far" - and having posted an eye-watering surge from late March, equity markets now need substantive progress in talks if the recovery is to go further. (Proactiveinvestors NA) The ceasefire expires next week, the Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed, and oil is sitting at $93 - not $70. The rally is real. The risks haven't gone anywhere.

🏛️ Stock Markets

S&P 500 breaks 7,000 for the first time ever - The index hit the milestone on Tuesday and continued higher, closing at 7,041 on Thursday - up 3.3% on the week. From war-correction lows to all-time highs in under three weeks. History.
Nasdaq posts 12 straight winning days - longest run since 2009 - The tech-heavy index closed at 24,102 Thursday, up 5.2% on the week, posting its longest winning streak in 17 years. Big Tech isn't just back - it's running the show again.
TSMC posts 58% profit surge - then shares fall anyway - TSMC reported net income of approximately $18.16 billion for Q1, a 58% jump from a year earlier, beating estimates - but warned that supply disruptions in key materials like helium and bromine from the Middle East conflict could impact profits longer term. Beat the numbers, sold the news. Classic.
Netflix Q1 beats - but Q2 guidance disappoints and Reed Hastings is leaving - Netflix posted Q1 EPS of $1.23, beating estimates of $0.79, with revenue up 16.2% year-on-year. But Q2 guidance came in below expectations, and co-founder Reed Hastings announced he will not stand for re-election and is departing the company he built 29 years ago. Great quarter, awkward exit.
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley crush earnings - Bank of America made $8.6 billion in Q1 profit, beating analyst expectations, while Morgan Stanley jumped 4.5% after delivering a better-than-expected quarter. Banks are printing. The "credit collapse" crowd is going to need to wait a little longer.
Retail traders are finally chasing the rally - JPMorgan's client flow data shows retail buying activity rebounding sharply, rising to the 55th percentile from roughly the 10th percentile just days ago, driven primarily by a surge in single-stock purchases climbing to the 71st percentile. Everyone who sat out the bottom is now buying the top. Stay sharp.
Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire - the Iran deal's missing piece - Trump confirmed Israel and Lebanon agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, resolving a key sticking point that had stalled US-Iran negotiations. The US and Iran are also reportedly in indirect discussions to extend their own two-week truce set to expire April 22. This is what the market has been waiting for. Don't relax until it's signed.
Oil slips back below $94 on ceasefire optimism - WTI slipped to $93.21 in early Asian trading Thursday as Trump expressed optimism about securing a permanent ceasefire ahead of the truce expiry next week. Every dollar lower in oil is a rate hike taken off the table. The Fed is watching this number more than any CPI print.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin holding near $74-75K as fear eases slightly - BTC is trading around $74,677, up 3.3% over the last seven days, with the Fear & Greed index climbing from extreme fear to 23. Still deeply bearish sentiment - but the floor is holding and the bounce is real for now.
Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin - rotation is live - Ether is outperforming BTC as ETF flows, spot prices, and a 41% jump in Ethereum transactions move in the same direction for the first time in months, even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $325 million in net outflows. The rotation out of BTC and into ETH is one of the cleaner trades in crypto right now.
Clarity Act hits the Senate - biggest crypto regulation moment of 2026 - The US Senate returned from recess this week with the Clarity Act on the agenda, which would define how crypto markets are divided between the SEC and CFTC. If this passes, it unlocks institutional money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting for regulatory clarity. Watch this one closely.

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The Play

No new entries this week - and that's the play.

Current stance: Holding existing positions, portfolio at record highs
Entry criteria: Only positions that are extremely attractive from here
The move to avoid: Chasing anything out of FOMO at the 100th percentile of 10-day returns

The Catalyst

Take a look at that chart. The S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10 days - a move that sits at the 100th percentile of every rolling 10-day return since 1950. Out of 19,191 observations going back 75 years, this ranks as the single most extreme short-term rally on record. The average 10-day return over that period? +0.4%. We just did 9.8%.

That's historic.

Our Take

Portfolio at record highs. Feels good. But this is exactly where most traders blow it.

When the market does something that has literally never happened before in 75 years of data, the worst thing you can do is start chasing. The war uncertainty hasn't gone away. The Strait of Hormuz is still largely closed. Inflation is running hot. The ceasefire expires next week. The macro setup hasn't changed - the sentiment has. And sentiment at the 100th percentile is not a buy signal.

The discipline is in knowing when to sit on your hands. The gains are locked in. New entries will come - but only when the setup is undeniable, not because everyone else is piling in and you don't want to miss it. FOMO is how you turn a great month into a bad one.

Stay patient. Stay sharp. The next setup is coming.

This is the kind of real-time thinking you get inside TradingLab every single day - market reads, trade setups, and the mindset to actually execute them properly. If you're not already in the Discord, you're trading blind. Join the community here and trade alongside people who've been right when it mattered most.