The indicator everyone uses is F tier

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🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

This week started messy and just got rescued by a late-night Truth Social post. The S&P 500 fell 0.63%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.59%, and the Dow lost CNBC 293 points Tuesday as investors grew increasingly convinced the ceasefire would expire without a deal - then Trump extended it after the close, sending futures straight back up. S&P 500 futures gained 0.5% and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7% on the extension news, Bloomberg which is becoming a familiar pattern: sell the uncertainty, buy the headline. That's the market we're in.

The bigger stories this week have nothing to do with Iran. Apple announced Tim Cook will step down as CEO in September, handing the reins to hardware chief John Ternus CNBC - the most telegraphed succession in corporate history, and the stock barely flinched. Tesla reports earnings after the close tonight with deliveries already disappointing and the real question being whether Musk says anything about Terafab. And Kevin Warsh is in front of the Senate Banking Committee today for his Fed chair confirmation hearing - the most consequential monetary policy moment of 2026. The consensus view is Warsh will be dovish on rates but hawkish on the Fed's $7 trillion balance sheet, Fortune which means a steeper yield curve and a very different macro backdrop if he gets confirmed. Pay attention to this one.

🏛️ Stock Markets

Trump extends the ceasefire - futures bounce back from Tuesday's selloff - Shortly after Tuesday's close, Trump extended the two-week US ceasefire with Iran, citing Tehran's "seriously fractured" government as justification. CNBC The market swung from -0.6% to futures +0.5% overnight on a single post. This is still a headline-driven tape. Trade accordingly.
Tim Cook is out. John Ternus is Apple's next CEO. - Apple confirmed Cook will step down as CEO on September 1, with hardware chief John Ternus succeeding him. Cook moves to executive chairman. Apple's market cap increased more than 20-fold on Cook's watch, closing Monday at $4 trillion. CNBC Smooth succession. No surprise. The real question is whether Ternus can fix Apple's AI problem.
Kevin Warsh faces the Senate today - the Fed's future is on the line - Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell faces the Senate Banking Committee this morning. In remarks released ahead of the hearing, Warsh said the Fed should remain independent from political influence and "must stay in its lane." CNBC Dovish on rates, hawkish on the balance sheet. The bond market is going to have a lot to say about this.
Tesla earnings tonight - the real question isn't EPS - Tesla reports Q1 after the close tonight. The stock entered earnings week up more than 7% on an AI chip development announcement, but deliveries came in below expectations and margins remain under pressure. The most consequential figure may be capex commentary around Terafab - a planned one-terawatt AI compute facility that could cost mid single-digit trillions. Investing.com Musk says one thing about Terafab and this stock moves 10% in either direction.
UnitedHealth beats and raises - healthcare is quietly having a great earnings season - UnitedHealth surged 8.75% after reporting strong Q1 results and raising its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to "greater than $18.25 per share." TheStreet One of the few stocks dragging the Dow higher on an otherwise red Tuesday.
GE beats earnings by 15% - stock falls 6% anyway - General Electric reported a 29% revenue increase, 25% EPS growth, and a 14% rise in free cash flow - and still fell over 6% intraday. TheStreet When a company beats by that much and the stock dumps, the market is telling you something about expectations and valuation. Take note.
Adobe approves $25 billion buyback - Adobe shares rose more than 2% after the board approved a $25 billion stock repurchase program through April 2030. CNBC Big tech is still returning cash aggressively. Buybacks are back in style.
Oil slides back toward $87 on ceasefire extension - Crude oil was trading at $87.58 Wednesday morning, retreating further from its highs Yahoo Finance as the ceasefire extension removed the immediate worst-case scenario. Every move lower here takes rate hike pressure off the Fed.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin climbs above $76K on ceasefire extension - Bitcoin was trading at $75,974 Wednesday morning, up 0.86% on the day, Yahoo Finance bouncing alongside equity futures on the ceasefire news. The $74K ETF cost basis level held. For now, that's the line in the sand.
Strategy bought $2.54 billion in Bitcoin last week - Strategy purchased 34,164 Bitcoin for approximately $2.54 billion last week at an average price of $74,395 per coin, bringing their total spend to roughly $61.56 billion at an average cost of $75,527. CoinDesk The biggest buyer in the market doesn't stop. That's a floor with a name on it.
$74K is the number - above it, crypto is risk-on; below it, things get ugly - CoinShares senior research associate Luke Nolan said Bitcoin holding above its ETF cost basis near $74,000 is the condition required to confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in fund flows - adding that "follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above" that level. CoinDesk Simple setup. Watch the level.
Warsh confirmation hearing = a crypto catalyst hiding in plain sight - Kevin Warsh's Senate testimony is being watched closely by crypto traders because his commentary on rate policy and digital assets will provide more colour on whether the Fed hikes or cuts - and any positive statements on crypto will be read as bullish for the industry. The Market Periodical Most people are watching this for stocks. Crypto traders should be too.

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Most Traders Are Using Indicators Designed To Lose. Here's The Truth.

Let's be honest. The average retail trader's chart looks like a toddler got hold of a crayon and went to town. Indicators everywhere. All of them confidently pointing in slightly different directions. All of them wrong.

I just dropped a video ranking every major trading indicator from S tier to F tier - and I'm not pulling punches.

MACD? F tier. It's a lagging indicator built on top of another lagging indicator. In the 2022 bear market, MACD crossover signals were late by an average of 11 days. Eleven days of drawdown before it told you to sell. Genuinely useless when it matters most.

Stochastics? D tier. Great in the 1980s when humans were screaming at each other in trading pits. Completely arbitraged away by algorithms now. RSI? C tier - but only if you're using divergences. If you're using it as an overbought/oversold signal, crude oil stayed "overbought" for 34 consecutive days in 2022 while the price kept climbing. Hope you didn't short that.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci both clock in at B tier. Donchian Channels and moving averages hit A tier. And at the very top - the only indicator that makes S tier - is volume. It's the only one measuring something completely different from price. It measures actual conviction. Real participation. In real time. Everything else is just price data wearing a different hat.

The real takeaway? Most traders are stacking indicator on top of indicator, all derived from the same input, all giving them slightly different versions of the same delayed wrong answer. It's noise. Pure noise.

Watch the full breakdown here