🧪 Tariffs, Tech and Tantrums

Apple and Amazon are playing it coy despite solid earnings

May 02, 2025

Good Morning! 

It’s Friday, and the markets are doing their best impression of a soap opera: tariffs, tech tantrums, and a budget proposal that sounds like it was drafted in a Tesla on autopilot.

Meanwhile, futures are flirting with optimism (again), Apple and Amazon are playing it coy despite solid earnings, and Trump’s back in budget-slashing mode with a little help from... Elon Musk and the “DOGE” department? Yeah, it’s that kind of day.

Big tech's earnings gave us fireworks, but jobs data and geopolitical drama are lurking in the wings. Oh, and gold just got punched in the face.

Let’s get into it 👇

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2nd May, 2025

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📈 What’s Moving Markets Today?

🔥 Futures Perk Up on Trade War Thaw

Just when it looked like markets were running on fumes, here comes a little geopolitical sunshine. U.S. stock futures ticked higher Friday after China signaled it's open to new trade talks with Washington. Nothing signed, sealed, or delivered yet, but even a whiff of cooperation is enough to jolt Wall Street out of its nap.

📌 Market Moves:

  • 📈 S&P 500 Futures: Up 0.6% (+33 points)

  • 📈 Nasdaq Futures: Up 0.4% (+72 points)

  • 📈 Dow Futures: Up 0.8% (+310 points)

  • 📈 Second weekly gain in a row for all three major indices

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💡 China’s Ministry of Commerce said U.S. outreach signals an interest in negotiating, but reiterated talks must start with “sincerity”,read: drop the 145% tariffs. Spoiler: Trump’s not exactly walking that direction, having just reimposed tariffs on low-value shipments from China and Hong Kong.

🧾 Jobs Report: Reality Check Incoming

All eyes now shift to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a potential buzzkill. The labor market’s been holding steady, but with rising economic anxiety over tariffs, we could finally see some cracks.

📌 Expectations:

  • 🧑‍🏭 Nonfarm Payrolls: Forecast to rise by just 138,000 (down from 228K in March)

  • 📉 Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold at 4.2%

  • 💵 Wages: Avg hourly earnings seen rising 0.3% MoM, pushing YoY to 3.9%

Despite the tight labor market, the first-quarter GDP contraction is still fresh on everyone’s mind. A weak print here could intensify recession chatter,and maybe even spook the Fed out of its current wait-and-see posture.

🍎 Apple & Amazon: Strong Quarter, Soft Future

You’d think beating Wall Street expectations would be enough to win the week. Not so fast. Apple and Amazon delivered solid results,but paired them with guidance that screamed caution, and investors weren’t feeling generous.

📌 Key Takeaways:

  • 🍏 Apple: Cut its buyback program by $10B and warned tariffs could cost $900M this quarter

  • 🛒 Amazon: AWS growth slowed to 16.9%, its weakest in 5 quarters

  • 📉 Both stocks dipped in premarket trading despite headline beats

💬 Analyst Thomas Monteiro summed it up: “Tim Cook’s hoarding cash, which tells you everything you need to know about how uncertain Apple feels about the near-term.”

💼 Trump's Budget Bombshell

If you thought the trade talks were spicy, wait for Trump’s 2026 budget proposal. On Friday, the White House is expected to unveil a budget that slashes $160 billion from non-defense programs, while boosting defense and border spending. Oh, and there's a new agency: DOGE,yes, really.

📌 What’s in it:

  • ✂️ Cuts to environmental programs, renewable energy, education, and foreign aid

  • 💣 Increases to defense and border security

  • 🤖 New Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by... wait for it... Elon Musk

  • 🎯 Goal: Trim $150B in FY26 and $1T over time

Let the Congressional fireworks begin. This proposal has about as much chance of passing as a Tesla hitting Mars, but it sets the tone for a long, messy fiscal fight.

🛢 Oil Ticks Up on Trade Optimism

Crude prices are crawling back after a brutal week. With China-U.S. trade chatter offering a glimmer of hope, oil bulls are breathing again... slightly.

📌 Prices:

  • 🛢 Brent: Up 0.1% to $62.20

  • 🛢 WTI: Up 0.1% to $59.30

Still, both are set to finish the week down over 5%, weighed by recession fears and a coming OPEC+ production hike. Any bounce here looks more like a dead cat than a durable rebound.

🎯 The Takeaway: Eyes Wide Open

Between trade tensions, soft guidance from the tech kings, and a looming jobs report, the market feels like it's running with the parking brake on.

  • Bulls are clinging to tech strength and hopes of U.S.-China détente

  • Bears are pointing at slowing earnings, Trump’s budget brawl, and recession whispers

  • Either way, volatility isn’t going anywhere

Strap in. Stay sharp. And remember: the market always finds new ways to surprise you.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab