🧪 Politician Insider Trading

Good Morning!

This week? Wall Street bonuses are popping, GameStop’s back in meme mode, and Bitcoin just reminded everyone it’s still allergic to tariffs. Meanwhile, Tesla surged 12% out of nowhere, and yes—we’re about to start copying politicians’ trades like it's a full-time job.

It’s a wild week. We’ve got market heat, earnings to watch, and the most profitable lawmakers on our radar.

Let’s get into it 👇

🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Stock Markets

• S&P 500 Clocks Third Day of Gains as Wall Street Bonuses Hit Record $47.5 Billion in 2024

• GameStop Stock Pumps 8% After Earnings Update Confirms Bitcoin Investment

• Tesla Stock Just Made a Roaring Comeback—Up 12%. But Can It Sustain the Charge?

Crypto

• Bitcoin Jumps 3% as Tariff Relief Lifts Crypto Market Back Toward $3 Trillion

• Bitcoin, Ethereum to end Q1 in the red, ‘vertical swing up’ unlikely

• Crusoe to sell Bitcoin mining business to NYDIG to focus on AI

• Bitcoin Hovers Above $87K, Dogecoin, SHIB Surge 11% as Traders Monitor Tariffs

Forex/Commodities

• US Dollar Adds Fourth Day to Winning Streak as Trump Tamps Down Tariff Threat

• Sterling Slides Below $1.29 as UK Inflation Softens to 2.8%. More Rate Cuts Coming?

• Dollar Breaks ¥150.00 as Bulls Charge Ahead amid Tariff Optimism, Yen Weakness

Upcoming Earnings

📅 MON.

• No Notable Earnings

📅 TUES.

• McCormick & Company (MKC)

• GameStop (GME)

📅 WED.

• Dollar Tree (DLTR)

• Paychex (PAYX)

• Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF)

• Verint Systems (VRNT)

📅 THURS.

• Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

• AAR Corp (AIR)

📅 FRI.

• No Notable Earnings

🕵️‍♂️ Coming Friday: Tracking the Politician Traders

They’re lawmakers by day, stock snipers by night—and we’re officially watching their every move.

This Friday, we’re dropping a new segment tracking the Top 10 performing politicians in the market, based on win rates, profitability, and total portfolio returns. We’re not just talking about passive income here. We’re talking Pelosi buying Nvidia days before legislation drops, or senators timing the market like hedge fund pros.

🔍 Here’s what we’ll be doing:

• Monitoring real-time disclosures from Congress (yes, they have to report trades—eventually)

• Filtering for fast-filers only (none of that 45-day delay garbage)

• Copying their trades exactly—no overthinking, no tweaking, just cold-blooded mimicry

• Building a $10K shadow portfolio based on their every move

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📈 What’s Moving Markets Today?

🔥 Futures Flinch as Tariff Talk Tightens

Markets woke up on the wrong side of the bed today. U.S. stock futures slipped slightly, cooling off after Tuesday's modest gains. Investors are trying to decode the latest White House messaging on tariffs—which, in true Trump fashion, is loud, contradictory, and vague.

📌 Key Takeaways:

• Dow Futures dipped 0.1%, or 45 points

• S&P 500 Futures fell by 8 points (also 0.1%)

• Nasdaq Futures trailed behind, sliding 0.2%

• The dip follows Tuesday’s cautious rally after whispers that Trump’s April 2 tariff bomb may be a firecracker instead

💣 Trump’s Trade Tease: Less Bark, More Bite?

The former President says he doesn’t want too many exceptions to his planned tariffs. That’s code for: “I’ll be tough, but maybe not completely insane.” His target? Roughly 15 countries with trade imbalances—plus a few sectors ripe for headlines like autos, pharma, and semiconductors.

📌 What You Should Know:

• Trump told Newsmax he’ll be “more lenient than reciprocal”—because going full tit-for-tat would “be very tough for people.” Thanks for the mercy, Don.

• Despite the “softer” stance, investors aren’t totally at ease: tariffs still mean inflation risk and possible growth slowdowns

• The uncertainty has already whacked global markets over the past month—and April 2 is shaping up to be a volatility landmine

🛍️ Retail Earnings in Focus: Chewy, Cintas & Dollar Tree

It’s corporate earnings season, aka Wall Street’s version of American Idol. Today’s lineup is weirdly eclectic—pet food (Chewy), uniforms (Cintas), discount retail (Dollar Tree), and payrolls (Paychex). Who says markets aren’t diversified?

📌 Why It Matters:

• Cintas and Paychex give us a pulse check on small biz hiring—if they’re sluggish, the job market could follow

• Dollar Tree is one to watch for clues on how low-income shoppers are feeling (spoiler: not great, Bob)

• Analysts noted that rival Dollar General’s recent results weren’t a total disaster, so there’s hope for some retail resilience

🇬🇧 Inflation Cools in the UK (Finally)

Across the pond, the U.K. got a pleasant surprise—February inflation came in at 2.8%, below the 3.0% forecast. Sure, it's still above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, but for now, Chancellor Rachel Reeves can breathe easy during her Spring Statement.

📌 By the Numbers:

• Headline CPI: 2.8% YoY (vs. 3.0% expected)

• Monthly inflation: Up 0.4%, reversing January’s drop

• Core CPI (excluding food/energy): Holding steady at 3.5%

• Source: Investing.com

Translation: inflation’s cooling off, but not fast enough to kill rate hike anxiety entirely.

🛢️ Oil Ticks Higher—But Watch the Russia/Ukraine Deal

Oil is doing its usual geopolitical tango. Prices edged up after a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories, but gains were capped by a naval ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine (yeah, that happened) and possible sanction relief on Moscow.

📌 What’s Moving Crude:

• U.S. crude inventories dropped by 4.6 million barrels, surprising everyone

• API data helped lift prices alongside global supply worries

• Potential easing of sanctions = more Russian oil = price ceiling incoming

• Don’t forget: the U.S. is still leaning hard on Iran and Venezuela exports, tightening the spigot elsewhere

🎢 The Takeaway: Volatility Is the Vibe

Markets are on edge—hovering between relief over softer tariffs and anxiety over everything else. Tariff roulette, earnings wildcards, and surprise geopolitics are creating a “pick-your-own-adventure” kind of market, and investors are riding the wave.

📌 Your Market Mood Board:

• Mild optimism on tariff clarity—but nothing’s set in stone

• Corporate earnings could break either way

• Oil’s rising, but the ceasefire may change that

• Inflation readings are mixed and still keeping central banks on alert

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab