🧪 My Outlook On BTC

Plus: OSW is making waves

July 17, 2024

Good Morning!

Today's crypto market is reeling from Mt. Gox's massive $9 billion Bitcoin move, sparking panic and speculation. But don't let the fear fool you; savvy investors are gearing up to buy as the market overreacts. Meanwhile, our top stock pick, OneSpaWorld Holdings ($OSW), is showing strong momentum and has already hit its first profit target.

Let’s get into it 👇

🌡 Market Temperature Check

📰 What’s Happening Today?

Here’s what happened in crypto today…

Big news is shaking up the crypto world – Mt. Gox has just moved over 140,000 BTC to a cold wallet and some unknown addresses, nearly $9 billion worth of Bitcoin. Panic and speculation are running wild, but CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says we need to chill out a bit.

  • Mt. Gox’s sell-off overestimated: Ju believes that the impact of these transactions, which could total between $3 billion and $9 billion, is tiny compared to Bitcoin's market cap growth over the past 18 months. Even if the entire $3 billion is sold on Kraken, it’s just 1% of the realized cap increase in this bull cycle. In other words, it’s a manageable event.

  • Smart money strategy: While some folks are panicking, the “smart money” – those savvy whales – are getting ready to buy up BTC at lower prices. Ju points out that the market often reacts to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), but the underlying demand for Bitcoin remains solid.

  • Market cap vs. realized cap: Despite $224 billion in Bitcoin sales since 2023, the price has jumped by 350%. This shows that overall market demand for Bitcoin is strong, outpacing the realized cap growth.

Massive BTC Transfers: The Breakdown

On July 16, in just three hours, Mt. Gox moved nearly 190,000 BTC. Let’s break down what happened:

  • Detailed movements:

    • 44,527 BTC to a known Mt. Gox cold wallet.

    • 42,587 BTC (worth $2.69 billion) to an unknown address ending in “BHDct9b.”

    • Additional 4,641.24 BTC (worth $293.94 million) to the same cold wallet.

    • 48,641 BTC (worth $3.07 billion) to another unknown address.

  • Market reaction: This sudden flurry caused immediate market jitters, with fears driving down Bitcoin's value. The "BHDct9b" address is still holding its massive haul, adding to the market's unease.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

So, what should you keep an eye on as this unfolds? Here are some key points:

  • Whale activity: Watch for big investors buying up Bitcoin. Those savvy whales are likely to take advantage of the temporary price drop caused by the Mt. Gox FUD.

  • Long-term outlook: Despite short-term volatility, the fundamental demand for Bitcoin is strong. Historically, events like this have had limited long-term impacts on Bitcoin’s price.

  • Market psychology: Understanding market psychology is key. Panic selling can lead to missed opportunities, while recognizing overblown fears can position you for gains.

📈 What I’m Trading

Riding the OSW Wave

The Play

Mr. M from my private TradingLab has spotted a swing trade opportunity in OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited ($OSW). Here’s the scoop:

  • Entry: $16.50

  • Targets:

    • TP1: $17 (already hit)

    • TP2: $17.5

    • TP3: $18

    • TP4: $19

    • TP5: $20+

  • Stop Loss: $15

The Catalyst

OSW is looking pretty solid right now, showing a nice upward trend. Over the past 12 weeks, the stock has jumped 29.5%, which is a great sign that investors are confident about its potential. Even more recently, in the last four weeks, it’s up 3.5%, so the momentum is definitely there.

Trading at 94% of its 52-week high-low range, OSW seems to be gearing up for a breakout. Plus, it has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), meaning it's in the top 5% of over 4,000 stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises. These are strong indicators that OSW has more room to run.

Our Take

We’re feeling good about OSW. The stock’s recent performance and high Zacks Rank make it a buy in our book. The current setup—a flat base with a relative strength rating of 91—makes $16.50 a great entry point. With the first profit target already hit at $17, we’re optimistic about hitting the higher targets.

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✍ TL;DR

  • Crypto Market Update:

    • Mt. Gox moved $9 billion worth of Bitcoin to a cold wallet and unknown addresses.

    • Market panic is high, but CryptoQuant CEO advises staying calm.

    • The sell-off impact is small compared to Bitcoin's market cap growth.

    • "Smart money" investors are preparing to buy BTC at lower prices.

    • Despite $224 billion in sales since 2023, Bitcoin's price has surged 350%.

  • Massive BTC Transfers Breakdown:

    • Nearly 190,000 BTC moved by Mt. Gox in three hours.

    • Significant transfers to cold wallets and unknown addresses.

    • Market jitters and fears caused a drop in Bitcoin's value.

  • Future Outlook for Bitcoin:

    • Watch for whale activity indicating buying opportunities.

    • Strong long-term demand for Bitcoin despite short-term volatility.

    • Understanding market psychology is crucial for recognizing opportunities.

  • Trading Focus:

    • Stock Pick: OneSpaWorld Holdings ($OSW):

      • Entry point: $16.50, Stop Loss: $15.

      • Targets: TP1: $17 (hit), TP2: $17.5, TP3: $18, TP4: $19, TP5: $20+.

      • Strong recent performance and high Zacks Rank.

      • Momentum indicates a potential breakout.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab