Good Morning!
🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup
Markets are kicking off Q2 with a broad relief rally — but don't get too comfortable. This is still a headline-driven tape, and today's catalyst is a big one.
Trump told reporters late Tuesday that he foresees the US ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks. That was enough to send the S&P 500 up ~0.9%, European stocks jumping 2.6%, and Asian shares surging 4.9% — while Brent briefly dipped below $100.
But the risks haven't gone away. Iran has threatened to attack US tech companies with operations in the Middle East — including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Google — with attacks reportedly set to begin from 8 p.m. Wednesday Tehran time. That's a live tail risk hanging over this rally.
Bank of America now expects headline inflation to hit nearly 4% year-over-year in coming months, cutting the global growth forecast by 40bps to 3.1% for 2026. The macro backdrop is getting worse even as peace hopes lift markets. Higher for longer isn't going anywhere.
Brent and US crude have both gained roughly 60% since the conflict began, feeding directly into inflation worries and rate repricing across global markets. The Fed's April calendar is loaded — payrolls Friday, FOMC minutes April 8, next meeting April 28-29. Every data point matters now.
Bottom line: It's a relief bounce, not a trend reversal. Enjoy the green, but stay alert.
🏛 Stock Markets
S&P 500 rockets on Iran peace hopes as Trump eyes war exit in weeks S&P up 0.69%, SPY +0.65% — broad market relief as peace headlines dominate the open.
Iran threatens US tech giants — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Google at risk The IRGC threatened attacks on US tech companies with Middle East operations starting Wednesday evening Tehran time — the single biggest risk to the rally right now.
Nike craters 11% on China warning and full-year sales decline guidance NKE warned of a projected 20% drop in its China market this quarter — a brutal reminder that geopolitics has real earnings consequences.
Oracle pops on mass layoffs to fund AI data center buildout Barclays noted Oracle could triple revenue over three years with a leaner headcount — shares up ~$3.30.
Europe surges 2.6% on Trump peace signals, London opens higher London stocks opened higher Wednesday after the White House confirmed a prime-time presidential address on the war.
₿ Crypto
Bitcoin climbs back above $68K as peace hopes lift risk sentiment BTC up 2.88% to $68,680 — a clean technical bounce as macro fear eases slightly
Fear & Greed hits extreme fear at 8 — lowest since October 2023 Bitcoin dominance holding at 56.3%, and volume sitting 23% above the 30-day average — classic capitulation signature, not panic exit.
ETH leads majors with 4.82% gain as altcoins show life Ethereum outperforming BTC on the bounce — higher beta playing out as expected in a relief move.
Crypto CLARITY Act and stablecoin infrastructure in focus as Q2 begins The Fed's loaded April calendar — payrolls Friday, FOMC minutes April 8, next meeting April 28-29 — means any inflation surprise could flip the crypto bid fast.
Gold hits record $4,579 as safe haven demand persists despite the bounce Gold continuing its run even during an equity relief rally — the market is hedging, not fully believing the peace narrative.
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The Play
Sherlock (Belovy) called this one on the 30th of March — an ONDO short at a time when most people were still bag-holding hopium. Clean setup, clean execution.
Coin: ONDO/USDT Short — 20x leverage (cross)
Entries: $0.288 – $0.2685 (limit)
Target 1: $0.26 ✅ Hit — stops moved to entry
Target 2: $0.245 | Target 3: $0.23 | Target 4: $0.22
Target 5: $0.205 | Target 6: $0.197
Stop Loss: Daily candle close above $0.30
Result so far: +62.59% on a 20x short. And with stops moved to entry, this is now a free trade still hunting lower targets.
The Catalyst
ONDO is an RWA (Real World Asset) tokenisation play — and RWA narratives live and die by risk appetite. With the crypto Fear & Greed index sitting at an extreme fear reading of 8, the lowest since October 2023, and the broader market getting battered by oil shock inflation fears and Middle East war uncertainty, speculative altcoins like ONDO had no business holding their highs. The macro backdrop was screaming risk-off. When the tide goes out on altcoins, the ones built on narrative rather than revenue get hit hardest — and ONDO was no exception.
Our Take
This was textbook. Belovy spotted an overextended altcoin in a deteriorating macro environment, sized in across two entries to manage risk, and let the market do the work. Target 1 is bagged, stops are at break-even, and there's still five more targets to the downside if the risk-off mood continues.
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