New position: $DASH. Here's exactly why.

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Good Morning!

🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

The market is at record highs and somehow nobody feels comfortable about it. The S&P 500 closed at 7,519 on Tuesday - another all-time high - powered by AI stocks and Iran peace deal optimism, even as the war continues and oil remains above $100. Asian equities hit their own record overnight, with South Korea jumping 5% and SK Hynix surging 11% to cross a $1 trillion market cap. The ninth consecutive weekly gain is in play. The bull market is grinding higher on two legs: AI earnings that keep beating, and the hope of a peace deal that keeps not quite happening.

On Iran - Trump described his decision as a "solid 50/50" between accepting a diplomatic agreement and resuming strikes, before saying talks were "proceeding nicely" on Monday. Polymarket traders have put $154 million on the US-Iran peace deal, with December 31 contracts priced at 91% odds of a deal before year-end. The market believes a deal is coming. It just doesn't know when. Brent briefly dipped below $100 last weekend on Hormuz reopening hopes before climbing back. Every dollar in oil is still the most important macro variable in this market.

The other story dominating the week: OpenAI is expected to file for its IPO as soon as this week, joining SpaceX in what could be the most consequential IPO window in market history. SpaceX. OpenAI. Potentially Anthropic. Three of the most anticipated listings ever - all at once, all competing for the same capital.

🏛️ Stock Markets

S&P 500 hits fresh all-time high Tuesday - ninth weekly gain in sight - The S&P 500 gained 0.61% to close at a record 7,519.12 Tuesday, driven by AI stocks and Iran peace optimism, with Polymarket pricing a 61% chance of a higher open Wednesday. Nine straight weeks of gains. Whatever your macro view, you don't fight that tape.
Micron surges 17% - UBS slaps a $1,625 price target on it - Micron jumped 17% Monday after UBS raised its price target to $1,625 - more than double Friday's close - with the stock now up more than 800% year-over-year. Up 800% in a year. Still getting upgrades. The AI memory trade has gone parabolic and hasn't stopped.
Asian stocks hit all-time highs - SK Hynix crosses $1 trillion - MSCI's Asian equities gauge rose 1.1% to a record overnight, with South Korea jumping 5% and SK Hynix surging 11% to cross a $1 trillion market cap for the first time. The AI chip trade is global. South Korea is the best performing major market in the world right now.
OpenAI IPO filing expected this week - the SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic triple listing - OpenAI is expected to file for its IPO as soon as this week, with Anthropic also potentially joining the wave - creating the most concentrated mega-IPO window in market history alongside SpaceX's June 12 Nasdaq listing. $75 billion SpaceX raise. OpenAI. Anthropic. All competing for the same pool of capital at the same time. Something has to give.
Marvell Technology earnings Thursday - the next AI chip catalyst - Marvell Technology reports Q1 earnings Thursday with the stock flagged as "highly overbought and overvalued" heading into the print. After Nvidia's blowout and Micron's 17% surge, the bar for the next chip name is already sky high. Overbought into earnings is a dangerous place to be.
Dow sets new record Friday before Memorial Day weekend - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high Friday, rising 294 points, as stocks finished strong before the long Memorial Day weekend despite fresh geopolitical flashpoints. The market closed at a record going into a long weekend with Iran talks ongoing and $100 oil. That's either confidence or complacency.
Trump: Iran talks are "proceeding nicely" - oil stays volatile - Trump said Iran talks were "proceeding nicely" Monday even as fresh blows landed in both the Iran and Ukraine conflicts over the holiday weekend, with stocks climbing despite the headlines. "Proceeding nicely" is doing a lot of heavy lifting for this rally.
Kalshi: LA Mayor market ends June 2. Bass 68%, Pratt 27% — odds shifting daily. Best trades happen before consensus locks in. Get $10 free now. Claim Your $10.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin rangebound at $76-77K - watching from the sidelines as AI trades run - Bitcoin is trading around $76,800, down nearly 1% over 24 hours, as traders shovel capital into AI-related stocks and await mega-IPOs from SpaceX and OpenAI. Spot crypto volumes fell 14% to $1.05 trillion in April - the lowest since November 2023. The S&P is at all-time highs. BTC is flat. Capital is rotating into AI and IPOs. This is what crypto's ceiling looks like in a bull equity market.
SpaceX IPO sucking capital away from crypto - analysts flag the risk - Analysts flagged that Bitcoin's rally stalled near $80,000 exactly when SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus, with Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster noting SpaceX's filing "sucked the air out of the NVDA quarter." The $75 billion raise could divert significant capital away from crypto and other risk assets. The biggest IPO in history competing for the same pool of retail and institutional money that would otherwise flow into crypto. That's a real headwind until June 12.
Polymarket: 91% odds of Iran deal before year-end - biggest crypto catalyst hiding in plain sight - Polymarket's US-Iran peace deal contracts have generated $154 million in volume, with the December 31, 2026 contract priced at 91% odds of a deal. A confirmed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would send oil sharply lower, ease inflation pressure, open the door to Fed rate cuts, and remove the single biggest macro ceiling on risk assets including Bitcoin. If the deal happens, BTC's path to a new all-time high clears fast. That's the trade worth watching above everything else right now.

The LA Mayor Market Ends June 2. The Odds Are Moving Now.

Karen Bass is at 68%. Spencer Pratt at 27%. Over $21 million is already trading on the Los Angeles Mayor race on Kalshi — and the prices are shifting every day as local news breaks. The window to get in before the consensus hardens is closing. The best prediction market trades happen before everyone agrees on the outcome. That moment is right now, before June 2. Peer-to-peer, no house, cash out anytime. Trade $10, get $10 free to start.

Trade Before June 2

_{Trade responsibly.}

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New Position: $DASH - A Long Term Entry Into a Beaten-Down Compounder

I've been watching DoorDash for a long time. Yesterday I finally pulled the trigger.

Entry: $157.48. First DCA point only - not a full position.

Before anything else - transparency. This is a long-term hold, not a quick flip. DASH is down 30% since the start of the year and sitting 45% below its 52-week high of $281.74 from October 2025. That's exactly why I'm interested. The market has been pricing this like a broken business. The fundamentals say something different.

The Catalyst

DoorDash's Q1 2026 print showed total orders up 27% year-over-year to 933 million, Gross Order Value up 37% to $31.6 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 beating the $0.37 estimate. The headline revenue missed - but management called it a timing issue driven by winter storms, not a demand problem. The forward guidance was the real story: Q2 Marketplace GOV guided to $32.4-$33.4 billion - well above the $28 billion analysts had been modelling.

Then Goldman Sachs added DASH to its US Conviction List. Goldman cited strong Marketplace GOV growth, expanding restaurant, grocery and retail engagement, and upbeat Q2 guidance - pointing to DoorDash's push beyond core restaurant delivery into broader local commerce as increasingly central to the bull thesis. Multiple other analysts - Morgan Stanley, BMO, Susquehanna, Citi - all hold Buy ratings. Rothschild & Co Redburn has a $350 price target on the stock. At $157, the market is ignoring what the analysts are saying.

Our Take

This is a patient trade. I want to be clear: the stock is sitting near its 52-week low and could go lower before it goes higher. If it drops to $130, I'll be doubling my position there. This is a DCA strategy, not a conviction that the bottom is in.

What I do have conviction in: DoorDash has quietly built one of the stickiest consumer platforms in the world. DashPass membership is growing. Grocery and retail verticals are expanding. The Deliveroo integration adds international scale. CEO Tony Xu confirmed that well over half - "probably closer to two-thirds" - of DoorDash's code is now written with AI assistance, accelerating feature shipping velocity. This is not a company standing still.

The entry at $157 gives meaningful asymmetric upside against a defined DCA plan. $130 is the level I'm watching for the add. Risk is managed. Thesis is clear. Time horizon is long.

This trade was posted in the TradingLab Discord the moment I entered. Not after it moved - as it happened. If you want to be in the room when the next position opens, the $50 weekly trial gets you full access to every trade, every update, and every DCA move in real time. Start your 7-day trial here - cancel any time.