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The week's defining story is already written and it's a good one. June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month - below the -0.2% consensus - bringing annual inflation down to 3.5% against the 3.8% expectation. That's the largest single-month inflation decline since April 2020. Oil's collapse from $126 is showing up directly in the data, and the probability of a July Fed rate hike collapsed from 42% to 17% overnight. BofA's three-hike thesis just got significantly more complicated.
The bank earnings are backing it up. Goldman Sachs crushed Q2 with EPS of $20.98 against a $14.48 estimate - a 45% beat - on revenue of $20.34 billion against a $16.13 billion consensus. Morgan Stanley beat with EPS of $3.46 against $2.94 expected and revenue of $21.35 billion against $19.64 billion. Citi beat too at $3.15 EPS against $2.74 expected. Banks are printing in the trading and dealmaking environment. The one sore spot: IBM crashed 25% after warning Q2 profits will miss due to soft software and infrastructure demand - a reminder that not every legacy tech name is riding the AI wave.
Today PayPal surged premarket on reports of a $53 billion takeover offer, ASML raised its 2026 forecast and lifted Nasdaq futures 0.5%, and Warsh testifies before Congress for a second day - his first comments yesterday were that "one data point was not enough to declare victory over inflation." The market clearly disagrees.
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Mr M's Watchlist - July 15th
Four names on Mr M's radar today. Here's exactly what he's watching and where he needs to see price go.
$ERNA - Pivot at $11.10
Targets: $11.30 → $11.50 → $11.70 → $12+
$KUST - Pivot at $1.72
Targets: $1.80 → $1.85 → $1.90 → $2+
$SOBR - Break at $1.65
Targets: $1.70 → $1.75 → $1.80 → $1.90+
$AEHR - Break at $95.35
Targets: $97 → $99 → $101 → $105+
Two pivots, two breaks. Mr M posts these before the open so members know exactly what levels to watch and where the trade triggers. No guessing. No chasing. Just price hitting a level and a plan already in place for when it does.
This is what the daily watchlist looks like inside TradingLab Premium - stocks mapped out, levels defined, targets set, before the market opens.
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‘til next time,
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