đŸ§Ș Market CHAOS

Uncover market mayhem as Trump fires tariffs, $2 trillion vanishes, and Wall Street trembles—expert insights cutting through today's economic chaos and hidden opportunities.

April 04, 2025

🚹 Market chaos? You're not alone. 

Good Morning!

Markets are messy, headlines are hysterical, and somewhere in the middle of it all is an opportunity, or a trap. This week, Trump fired off a fresh round of tariffs, Wall Street threw a tantrum, and $2 trillion vanished like a bad magic trick. Gold’s glowing, Powell’s pacing, and oil’s bleeding.

Oh, and if you’re waiting on politicians to move
 even Pelosi’s quiet this week (I checked).

Let’s get into it 👇

🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Stock Markets

2nd April, 2025

Crypto

Forex/Commodities

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đŸ•”ïžâ€â™‚ïž Pol Watch: Who’s Buying, Selling, and Hiding It

While this week was uneventful on the trading front for these politicians, it's worth noting that Josh Gottheimer and Markwayne Mullin have been among the more active traders in recent months.

Gottheimer, for instance, has reported 44 trades in the last 60 days, with a total transaction value of approximately $3 million. Mullin has also been active, with 13 trades totaling around $175,000 in the same period. ​

I'll continue to monitor and report on any notable trading activities in the coming weeks. đŸ«Ą 

📈 What’s Moving Markets Today?

đŸ”» Tariff Tantrum: Markets Still Spiraling

Markets are still reeling from Trump’s tariff bombshell. U.S. stock futures are down again this morning, trying to recover from Wall Street’s ugliest day in five years. If yesterday felt like a crash, it’s because it kind of was.

📌 Quick Recap:

  • Dow futures down 0.6%, S&P 500 off 0.5%, Nasdaq 0.4% lower as of early Friday morning

  • The Dow dropped nearly 1,700 points on Thursday. That’s a full 4% gut-punch

  • Nasdaq collapsed nearly 6%, and the S&P 500 got dragged into correction territory, falling 4.8%

  • This week alone? Worst performance for Nasdaq and S&P since September 2024

đŸ’„ Why the panic? Trump’s back on the trade war wagon. A 10% baseline tariff on imports from every country, effective April 5, has investors eyeing the exits.

And if you’re wondering how bad this could get: JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of global recession if this plan sticks around (Investing.com).

Good times.

Stressed Season 1 GIF by Friends

Don’t panic!

🧠 Payrolls Pinned as Hiring Slows

Today’s March jobs report might offer a glimmer of economic sanity, or throw more gas on the fire. Expectations are... let's call them cautious.

📌 What to Watch:

  • Forecast: 137,000 jobs added in March, down from 151K in February, and well below the 6-month average of 190K

  • Unemployment rate seen holding steady at 4.1%

  • Labor market uncertainty is real, thanks to mass public-sector layoffs and businesses hitting pause on hiring amid the trade chaos

Earlier this week, job openings dipped while private employers actually surprised to the upside (Investing.com). But don’t get too excited, one report doesn’t make a trend.

🧱 Powell in the Spotlight

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later today, and let’s just say he’s got his hands full.

📌 Setting the Stage:

  • The Fed held rates steady in March at 4.25%-4.50%, citing, you guessed it, uncertainty

  • With inflation bubbling and growth under siege, Powell is threading the tightest of needles

  • Markets are now pricing in 100bps of rate cuts this year
 and Citi’s betting on even more if tariffs stick around

  • Citi’s latest note? Expect 125bps in cuts, and a Fed that leans “dovish” to protect jobs (Investing.com)

Bottom line: Powell’s tone today could move markets. Buckle up.

🏆 Gold Still Glitters

If there’s one clear winner from all this economic drama, it’s gold. The shiny stuff dipped slightly today, but it’s still racking up gains.

📌 Golden Nuggets:

  • Spot gold at $3,115.75/oz, down just 0.2% after setting a new high of $3,168.04 on Thursday

  • On track for a fifth straight weekly gain

  • Ed Yardeni says we could see $4,000/oz by year-end if the tariff saga drags on (Investing.com)

  • HSBC just raised its 2025 forecast to $3,015/oz, and 2026 to $2,915/oz

Geopolitics, inflation, and general financial freak-outs are sending investors sprinting to the safe haven.

đŸ›ąïž Oil Tanks on Recession Fears

Meanwhile, oil is feeling the pain. Like, worst week in months kind of pain.

📌 Black Gold Breakdown:

  • Brent and WTI both plunged more than 6% on Thursday

  • Brent is on track for its biggest weekly percentage loss since October, WTI since January

  • OPEC+ is planning to ramp up production because why not kick oil while it's down?

  • Goldman Sachs is slashing expectations: Brent to average $69 in 2025, WTI at $66 (Investing.com)

If you're looking for upside here
 maybe don’t.

🎱 The Takeaway: Tariffs, Tension, and a Whole Lotta Volatility

Markets are caught in a blender of trade chaos, recession risk, and a Fed with no good options. If you're feeling a little seasick watching your portfolio bounce around, you're not alone.

But hey, that's why we stay tactical, stay informed, and most importantly, stay frosty.

Catch you next week.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab