$HIMS: up 55%. Haven't sold a share.

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Markets are closed today for Juneteenth. But what a week to recap.

Trump signed the US-Iran peace MOU at Versailles on Wednesday - the formal end of a 108-day war that sent oil to $126, crashed markets, and pushed inflation to a three-year high. Brent is now back below $75 and heading toward pre-conflict levels. Oil drove over 60% of the May CPI surge. If it stays here, the July inflation print changes dramatically.

The complication was Warsh. His debut FOMC meeting delivered a genuine shock: rates held at 3.50-3.75%, but 9 of 18 dot plot participants now project a rate hike by year-end - a complete reversal from March when zero officials saw a hike. Then he went further - abolishing forward guidance entirely, becoming the first Fed chair to refuse to submit his own dot plot projections, and announcing five internal task forces to review Fed operations. The old rules of reading the Fed are gone. Nobody knows what the new ones are yet.

Markets bounced back Friday after the initial Wednesday selloff - the Russell 2000 led with +2.12%, Nasdaq gained 1.91%, and the S&P recovered 1.08% - as the Iran signing and lower oil gave investors something to buy. The week ends with the peace deal signed, the Fed hawkish, oil at $75, and markets trying to figure out which one matters more.

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US-Iran MOU signed at Versailles - the war is officially over - Trump signed the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding at Versailles on Wednesday, providing for the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, removal of the US naval blockade, and a framework for further negotiations over 60 days. 108 days of war. One signature. The most important macro event of 2026 is done.
Warsh abolishes forward guidance - 9 of 18 FOMC members now see a 2026 hike - Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75% but eliminated forward guidance entirely, raised the PCE inflation forecast to 3.6% for year-end, and became the first Fed chair to refuse to submit his own dot plot projections - announcing five task forces to review Fed operations. The Fed just became genuinely unpredictable. That's a new risk for markets.
Markets bounced Friday - Russell 2000 +2.12%, Nasdaq +1.91%, S&P +1.08% - Equities rallied back Thursday as the Iran signing and lower oil prices gave investors a reason to buy after Wednesday's Fed-driven selloff, with the Russell 2000 leading on modest Treasury yield declines. The market absorbed a hawkish shock and bounced. That's a resilient tape.
Brent back below $75 - heading toward pre-conflict levels - Oil drove over 60% of May's CPI increase. With Brent at $75 and the Strait reopened, the path to a materially cooler July inflation print is real - and that changes Warsh's September dot plot calculus entirely.
SpaceX falls 5% after debut surge - Cursor deal the focus - SpaceX reversed gains to fall 5% Wednesday after the hawkish Fed decision, even as it confirmed the $60 billion acquisition of AI coding tool Cursor. Three days public, already doing one of the biggest M&A deals of the year.
Markets closed today - Juneteenth federal holiday - NYSE and Nasdaq both closed. Next major catalyst: June CPI, due mid-July. If oil stays at $75, that number could be the most important data release of the summer.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin falls to $63-64K - Warsh's hawkish shock overrides Iran peace deal - Bitcoin fell 2.8% to $63,964 as the hawkish dot plot and elimination of forward guidance pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on risk assets, with the Iran signing doing little to offset the macro pressure. Peace deal bought. Fed sold it right back.
The path back: Iran signing → lower oil → cooler July CPI → September dot plot revision - Energy prices drove over 60% of May CPI. If the Iran signing holds and oil stays subdued, the July CPI print could decelerate sharply from 4.2% - giving Warsh's data-dependent Fed reason to walk back hike projections in September. That 60-90 day sequence is the trade. Not the noise this week.
Warsh's "blind box" Fed is crypto's new macro wildcard - Warsh's refusal to submit dot plot projections and elimination of forward guidance creates genuine policy uncertainty - removing the pricing anchors crypto and risk assets had relied on under Powell for 14 years. Nobody knows what Warsh does next. That uncertainty is the premium the market is now pricing.

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$HIMS: Entered at $22.98. Up 55%. +$49,920 in the Bag.

On February 5th, I took a position in $HIMS at $22.98. I kept it low-key - volatile stock, needed room to breathe.

Yesterday I posted this to the community:

4,000 shares. $35.46 current price. +$49,920.

Why It Kept Running

This wasn't luck. The thesis kept getting confirmed. Hims & Hers posted Q1 2026 revenue of $608.1 million, with subscribers reaching nearly 2.6 million and full-year 2026 guidance raised to $2.8-$3.0 billion - driven by an accelerating domestic business and a strategic pivot into branded GLP-1 weight-loss products that's showing real early demand. The company completed its acquisition of Eucalyptus in June, expanding its international footprint, while Barclays raised their price target to $39 from $29 this week on strong GLP-1 growth. The obesity market tailwind is real and Hims is positioning directly into it.

The stock hasn't been a straight line - it plunged 13% on earnings day in May before recovering hard. That's exactly why I said at entry: expect it to move up/down big amounts. Holding through the noise is what turns a good idea into a great trade.

Still Holding

I haven't taken a single share off. The GLP-1 story is still early. The analyst upgrades are coming in. And a Needham price target of $35 - already hit - with Barclays now at $39 suggests there's more room left.

This one has more to give.

I posted this trade on February 5th at $22.98 - in the Discord, in real time, before it moved. Members who got in are sitting on 55% gains right now. The next setup is already being watched. The $50 weekly trial gets you full access to every trade the moment it drops - entries, updates, and live management. Start your 7-day trial here - cancel any time.