Good Morning!

Welcome back, traders, the Lab is open and the markets are doing exactly what we expected: wobbling, whining, and waiting for Nvidia to either save the week or nuke what’s left of tech sentiment. Futures are finally stabilizing after days of AI-panic selling, but don’t get too comfortable… the Fed minutes drop later, and they’ve been in their “mysterious and complicated” era lately.

Retail earnings are piling in, oil’s slipping on big inventory builds, and Bitcoin is still pretending it knows where it’s going. Translation? There’s plenty of opportunity out there, just not for the slow or the sloppy.

We’ve broken down the key moves, the risks, and (of course) Sherlock’s setup for the next big Bitcoin play.

Keep reading, the good stuff’s just ahead.

Futures are steady this morning as traders brace for a heavyweight combo: Nvidia’s earnings after the bell and the release of the Fed’s October meeting minutes. After several days of selling, driven by doubts around AI spending and stretched tech valuations, markets are finally catching their breath.

The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow all notched another round of losses yesterday, with tech leading the pullback as investors reassess whether the AI boom has gotten ahead of itself. Nvidia, now worth over $4.4T and representing more than 7% of the S&P 500, is back in the spotlight as traders look for clues on whether AI momentum can justify its price tag.

Retail earnings are also crowding the calendar, with Lowe’s, Target, and TJX Companies reporting this morning. Walmart follows tomorrow. Home Depot set a cautious tone yesterday after warning that hoped-for demand tied to lower mortgage rates hasn’t arrived.

On the macro front, the Fed minutes could offer insight into internal divisions over the next policy move. While October’s meeting showed near-unanimous support for a cut, recent remarks from officials suggest the data-dependent stance is getting messy. Traders have already priced out much of the December-cut optimism, CME FedWatch now shows just a 43% chance of a 25bps cut, down sharply from last week’s 62%.

Oil drifted lower as U.S. crude inventories jumped sharply, adding to oversupply worries. API data showed a 4.45M barrel build, with the official EIA report due later today.

Bottom line: tech fragility + Fed uncertainty + weak consumer signals + rising crude inventories = a market that’s stabilizing, but still walking on eggshells.

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$BTCDOM
• Support: $4,400–$4,350
• Bullish trigger: A 4H close below support (that’s when alts finally get room to run)
• Bias: Slightly bearish to neutral while dominance holds this level

$BTC
• Bullish trigger:
– Sweep of $89.3K major swing low
– Followed by a 4H close back above $93K
• Target: ~$100K
• Context: Rejected cleanly from the 0.65 Fib at $93.5K, suggesting one more leg down is still very likely

$BTC.X ( ▼ 2.02% ) Dominance is sitting right on support, which is something most alt traders are pretending not to see. Everyone’s busy bidding alts like Bitcoin already bottomed, but dominance hasn’t broken down, meaning alts are still exposed if BTC takes even a modest drop.

Meanwhile, $BTC.X ( ▼ 2.02% ) tapped the classic 0.65 retracement level and rejected exactly where relief rallies usually die. Because of that, Sherlock’s looking for one more liquidity sweep into the $89K region before any real bottom forms, similar to what happened at $74K earlier in the cycle.

With dominance at support and BTC still threatening a deeper dip, it’s not the time for blind alt optimism.

Sherlock’s approach here is the difference between trading with a plan and trading with hope. He’s not guessing bottoms, he’s waiting for the exact signals that confirm one.

For alts:
As long as BTCDOM is sitting on support, longing alts is playing on hard mode. A clean breakdown of that level is the green light, until then, the bias stays bearish-to-neutral.

For BTC:
The high-probability long comes after the pain. A sweep of $89.3K grabs liquidity, and a reclaim of $93K shows real strength. That’s when the long toward $100K becomes a legitimate play instead of wishful thinking.

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