BofA just called 3 rate hikes. Bitcoin noticed.

Good Morning!

🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Kalshi: Have a read on where BTC or ETH is heading? Trade it. Real crypto outcomes, peer-to-peer markets, no house edge. Start with a free $10 here. Claim $10 Free.

The market just had its worst week since the Iran war started - and the culprit this time isn't geopolitics, it's the Fed. Bank of America now forecasts three rate hikes in 2026 - September, October, and December - lifting rates to 4.25-4.50%, calling the Fed's inflation problem "unambiguously worse." Deutsche Bank added two more hikes of their own. Tuesday saw the Nasdaq fall 2.21%, the S&P drop 1.44%, and the KOSPI plunge 10% as a global chip selloff - triggered by SK Hynix slowing AI memory production to boost commodity DRAM - torched the semiconductor sector. Nvidia -4.2%, AMD -5.8%, Micron -13.2%, Qualcomm -8%. The AI trade's first real reckoning is here.

Today markets are attempting to bounce - S&P futures up 0.3%, Nasdaq futures up 0.6% - with all eyes on Micron's earnings after the close tonight. Analysts expect $34.5 billion in revenue and EPS of ~$19.72 - a monster number that has to justify a stock up 270% year-to-date. If Micron beats and guides up, the AI memory selloff gets bought. If it misses or guides cautiously, the reckoning deepens. One number tonight resets the entire semiconductor thesis. Meanwhile, Iran confirmed no tolls or charges for Hormuz transit, and oil is sliding toward $71-75 - the one genuinely positive macro development this week that nobody's paying attention to because the Fed rate hike trade is louder.

🏛️ Stock Markets

Nasdaq -2.21%, S&P -1.44% Tuesday - biggest single-day chip wipeout of 2026 - Micron fell 13.2%, AMD -5.8%, Nvidia -4.2%, Qualcomm -8%, and Broadcom -3.1% as South Korea's KOSPI plunged 10% on AI memory demand concerns. The market that was at all-time highs two weeks ago just had its worst session of the year.
Micron reports after the close tonight - the most important earnings of June - Wall Street expects roughly $34.5 billion in revenue and EPS of $19.72. Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $900 but kept a neutral rating, flagging very bullish positioning after a 270% year-to-date run. A beat sets up the relief trade. A miss or cautious guide deepens the reckoning.
BofA forecasts three Fed rate hikes - September, October, December - Bank of America reversed its hold forecast and now projects three 25bps hikes lifting rates to 4.25-4.50%, calling the Fed's inflation problem "unambiguously worse" after Warsh's hawkish first meeting. Deutsche Bank added two hikes of their own. The "higher for longer" trade just became "higher than anyone expected."
Iran confirms no Hormuz tolls - oil slides toward $71-75 - Trump confirmed Iran said there would be no tolls or charges of any kind for ships transiting the Strait, with over 11,000 seafarers beginning to exit through the waterway under IMO safety guarantees. The single genuinely bullish macro development this week - and the market's too distracted by rate hikes to price it.
Alphabet joins the Dow Jones - replacing an unnamed component next Monday - S&P Global announced Alphabet will join the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average before trading begins next Monday. One of the most consequential index additions in years - every Dow-tracking fund has to buy it.
SK Hynix files for $30 billion US listing - adding supply to an already-pressured sector - South Korea's SK Hynix filed to raise nearly $30 billion in a US listing - one of the largest of its kind - adding further supply to the AI memory group already under pressure from SK Hynix slowing HBM production to boost commodity DRAM. More supply into a selloff. Brutal timing.
SpaceX issues bonds one week after IPO - $400 billion wiped off its market cap - SpaceX disclosed $100.8 billion in cash but issued bonds just one week after its IPO, raising valuation concerns and weighing on the broader tech sector. The biggest IPO in history is already a volatility machine.
Revised Q1 PCE data due today - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - Revised PCE data lands today with markets already pricing three hikes. A hot print confirms BofA's call. A cool one reopens the debate. Either way, Warsh has to respond.

₿ Crypto

Bitcoin at $61-62K - Wintermute flags $59K as the bear market support - Wintermute's options desk put BTC in a $61,242-$63,563 range Wednesday, with token correlations rising and no fresh ETF bid visible - flagging $59,000 as the key support if current pressure continues. The level that held in February. Lose it and the structure breaks.
Seven straight weeks of ETF outflows - $160 million pulled this week alone - Investors pulled nearly $160 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, with outflows headed for a seventh consecutive week and the Coinbase premium index showing Bitcoin trading at a significant discount to global prices. Retail isn't buying. Institutions are selling. That's not a setup for a bounce.
BofA three-hike forecast = crypto's biggest near-term headwind - Markets are currently pricing about 41.2 basis points of tightening for 2026 - well below BofA's 75bps projection - meaning if the bank is right, there's significant further repricing to come that would weigh heavily on Bitcoin and crypto. The market hasn't finished adjusting to the new Fed reality yet.
Fear & Greed hits 18 - lowest FOMC-week reading on record - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 18 is the lowest reading ever recorded during an FOMC week, with 10x Research noting that sub-20 readings have historically been strong technical buy signals - but only if the Fed's live guidance is dovish. Extreme fear at a level that's historically preceded big moves. Direction unknown. Size accordingly.

🔓 FREE PREVIEW: These alerts are delayed. Upgrade to access them in real-time and join my trading community.

Belovy's BTC/DXY Analysis: The Dollar Just Changed Everything

This is exactly the kind of market read you get inside TradingLab every single day. Not price predictions. Not hopium. Macro analysis that actually connects the dots.

Here's Belovy's latest - and it's worth reading carefully.

A few days ago, Belovy flagged that if the DXY (US Dollar Index) rejected from the 100 level again, Bitcoin could see a retracement toward $74K-$75K. Standard playbook. Clean setup.

That setup just changed.

DXY didn't reject. It reclaimed 100 and kept going. On the 3-day chart, this is the cleanest acceptance above 100 in a long time - consecutive candle closes holding the level with conviction. The last time this happened was April 2022.

Most people remember what came next. Bitcoin was around $45K when DXY reclaimed 100 in April 2022. By June, BTC was at $17.6K. By the cycle low, $15.5K.

Belovy isn't calling a repeat of that exact move. But the message is unambiguous: this is not the same chart we were looking at last week.

The reason the dollar is strengthening matters too. It's not random. Markets are repricing a more hawkish Fed - higher for longer, potentially three rate hikes before year-end if BofA is right. Money is moving back into the dollar because liquidity is tightening again. That's historically not good for Bitcoin.

The near-term $74K-$75K retracement is still possible as a bounce. But the bigger picture just got materially harder. If DXY holds above 100, $38K is eventually happening.

That's Belovy's view. Not clickbait. Not a scare headline. Just what the chart is saying.

This analysis landed in the TradingLab Discord before the market moved on it. Belovy posts daily - macro reads, trade setups, live updates - and this is one of dozens of insights members get every single week. For $50, you can be in the room for seven days and see exactly what premium market analysis looks like in real time.

👉 Start your 7-day trial here - cancel any time.