Good Morning!

After nearly three weeks of relentless gains, Meta finally took a breather, slipping 2.8%, but that hasn’t stopped the S&P 500 from hitting fresh record highs.

Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff threats are back in focus, keeping investors on edge, while oil markets react to US-Russia peace talks. The strong dollar is squeezing corporate earnings, and we’ve got fresh Buffett portfolio moves to dissect.

Let’s get into it 👇

🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

Stock Markets

• After an incredible streak of gains that spanned nearly three weeks worth of trading days, shares of Meta finally fell 2.8% yesterday.

• The S&P 500 hits record highs.

• Warren Buffett’s biggest portfolio changes in Q4 have been released.

• While Wall Street buzzes about AI’s $80 trillion future, one company quietly leads the charge. This Stock Advisor report from The Motley Fool reveals why it’s poised to dominate. [ad]

Crypto

• Libra Token’s Co-Creator Claimed He Paid Argentinian President Milei’s Sister.

• BTC sinks after a quiet week. But now what?

• Hong Kong Regulator Unveils Roadmap to Strengthen Virtual Asset Ecosystem.

Commodities/Forex

• GBP/USD holds above 1.2600 after strong UK inflation data.

• ​​​​EUR/USD ploughs ahead on increased European Defence Spending.

Upcoming Earnings

📅 Wednesday, 19 February

• HSBC Holdings (HSBC)

• Carvana Co (CVNA)

• Etsy (ETSY)

• Glencore (GLNCY)

📅 Thursday, 20 February

• Walmart (WMT)

• Alibaba (BABA)

📈 What’s Moving Markets Today?

🤹 Markets Holding Strong Despite Trump's Tariff Escalation

Investors are in wait-and-see mode as they brace for the fallout from President Trump’s latest tariff threats—but you wouldn’t know it by looking at the market. The S&P 500 hit another record high on Tuesday, proving that Wall Street is still partying even with geopolitical risks looming in the background.

• Futures are steady: S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq futures barely budged overnight.

• New tariff threats: Trump signaled a 25% flat tariff on autos, chips, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. That’s a big deal for foreign automakers and the tech supply chain.

• Fed minutes on deck: Investors are waiting for insight into how policymakers see inflation risks and rate cuts moving forward. With the Fed in “pause mode,” any shift in tone could rattle markets.

🛢️ Oil Moves Higher as US-Russia Talks Progress

Oil prices are ticking up as US-Russian peace talks gain momentum. Energy markets remain laser-focused on Ukraine-related supply disruptions, but the potential for diplomatic progress is giving traders something to bet on.

• Geopolitical risk premium: If talks actually lead to stability, oil prices could cool off—but we’ve seen this movie before.

• Market on edge: Any headlines suggesting progress (or collapse) could send crude prices swinging.

💪 Strong Dollar Crushes Corporate Earnings

One thing that’s been quietly wrecking earnings this season? The relentless rise of the US dollar. Big Tech and consumer brands are feeling the pinch, as currency headwinds eat into overseas revenue.

• Big names taking a hit: Apple (AAPL) gets 58% of revenue from international sales, while Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Meta (META) all see at least 50% of revenue from abroad.

• Why it matters: A stronger dollar makes US products more expensive overseas, leading to slower growth and uglier forward guidance.

• What Goldman Sachs says: Analysts warned that companies are calling out FX risks more than ever in Q4 earnings calls. Expect this to be a recurring theme.

💰️ Earnings Watch: Etsy & Carvana Up Next

Earnings season is winding down, but there are still some key names left to report. Etsy (ETSY) and Carvana (CVNA) are set to release results today.

• Etsy: Investors will be watching for trends in e-commerce demand and whether inflation is squeezing online shoppers.

• Carvana: With used car prices in flux, the focus will be on how well Carvana is managing margins and demand in a turbulent auto market.

So, What’s the Vibe?

Markets may be flat today, but under the surface, there’s a lot to keep an eye on. With tariffs, inflation, a strong dollar, wars, and earnings all in play, expect more volatility ahead.

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