📈 AAPL Takes The Top Spot

Plus: We're Buying $ARM

Good Morning!

S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hitting record highs with a fifth one on the horizon, while crypto is buzzing and the Yen tumbles to a six-week low at ¥158.

Apple and Microsoft are battling for the top spot, with Apple’s new AI model shaking up the market. Arm Holdings is set to join the Nasdaq 100, presenting a prime trading opportunity we’re taking advantage of that we’ve broken down below.

Let’s get into it 👇

🌡 Market Temperature Check

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📰 What’s Happening Today?

The Battle for the Tech Top Spot

The race to be the world's most valuable company is heating up, and Apple (AAPL) has momentarily taken the lead from Microsoft (MSFT). This week saw Apple shares surge, briefly making it the world's most valuable company once again, only for Microsoft to reclaim the position shortly after. This neck-and-neck competition underscores the intense battle for dominance among tech giants.

  • Apple’s Surge: Apple's stock soared over 5% to a new high of $217 per share, pushing its market cap to an astounding $3.331 trillion.

  • Microsoft's Comeback: Despite Apple's leap, Microsoft's market value stands strong at $3.24 trillion, with Nvidia hot on their heels.

The combined value of these titans is staggering, representing about one-tenth of the entire global stock market. The battle isn't just about numbers; it's about innovation, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI).

The AI Factor: Apple Intelligence

Apple's latest push in the AI space, with the introduction of Apple Intelligence, has investors buzzing. This new general AI model was revealed at Apple's WWDC event and is poised to boost the company's flagship product, the iPhone. Analysts are optimistic, predicting that AI advancements will drive future growth and help Apple maintain its competitive edge.

  • Market Reactions: Following the AI announcement, Apple shares jumped over 7%, highlighting investor enthusiasm.

  • Analyst Insights: Wedbush analysts describe this period as a "historical week for the tech world," emphasizing the significance of AI in Apple's future.

Other tech giants aren't sitting idle. Nvidia, known for its AI chips, has seen its stock skyrocket by 154% this year, reaching a market cap of $3.11 trillion. The race to a $4 trillion market cap is now a key focus for these leading companies.

Market Dynamics

The broader market dynamics also play a crucial role in this battle. The tech-heavy Nasdaq recently hit a record high, fueled by signs of cooling inflation. Despite trailing in AI compared to peers like Microsoft and Alphabet, Apple's strategic moves, including a massive $110 billion buyback plan, have reassured investors.

  • Stock Performance: In 2024, Apple’s shares have risen about 12%, while Microsoft has added about 16%, and Alphabet nearly 28%.

  • Competitive Landscape: Nvidia and Microsoft are leading the charge, but Apple’s recent gains show it’s not to be underestimated.

The race is heating up, and it feels like the winner will be the company that uses AI the most effectively.

Tim Cook right now… Probably

📈 What I’m Trading

The Play

Swing Trade Idea: $ARM

Arm Holdings has caught our attention for a compelling swing trade opportunity. Here’s the breakdown of the play:

  • Entry: $161 - We’re looking to get in at this price point, capitalizing on the recent bullish momentum.

  • Levels:

    • 164

    • 167

    • 170

    • 175

    • 180

    • 185+

  • Stop Loss: $139 - This is our safety net. If the trade doesn’t go as planned, we cut our losses at this level.

Mr. M’s technical analysis highlights a well-defined entry point at $161, where the stock has demonstrated significant upward momentum. The price action has recently broken above key resistance levels, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend. The immediate target levels are set at 164 and 167, with potential further gains up to 185+ if the momentum sustains. The stop loss at $139 is strategically placed to protect against downside risk.

The Catalyst

Arm Holdings is set to replace Sirius XM Holdings in the Nasdaq 100 index and other Nasdaq indexes before the start of trading on June 24. This significant change comes after a press release from Nasdaq on Thursday evening. Arm, a UK-based chip maker with a market value surpassing $160 billion, is stepping in for Sirius XM, a satellite radio company valued at around $10 billion.

While Nasdaq hasn’t explicitly stated the reasons for this replacement, it is speculated by Barron’s that Sirius XM’s declining market value—falling below 0.1% of the total market capitalization of the Nasdaq 100—prompted this decision. Arm's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, which has a market value of about $22 trillion, positions it to potentially benefit from index-related buying.

Our Take

This trade is a buy, and here’s why:

First off, the chart speaks volumes. Mr. M's analysis points to a strong technical breakout. The stock has been consolidating and building momentum, and it has finally broken out past significant resistance levels. We see clear bullish signals, with the price moving above the key moving averages and volume confirming the breakout. The next resistance levels at 164, 167, and beyond are well within reach, given the current bullish trend.

The news of Arm Holdings joining the Nasdaq 100 adds a powerful catalyst to this setup. The addition to the index typically attracts substantial buying from index funds and institutional investors, driving the price higher. Given Arm’s robust market value and the current bullish sentiment, this trade offers a promising risk-reward ratio, especially with a conservative stop loss set at $139.

Don’t miss out on opportunities like this. Join our TradingLab community to stay ahead with real-time alerts, in-depth analysis, and exclusive trade ideas from top-notch analysts like Mr. M.

✍ TL;DR

Apple vs. Microsoft

  • Apple momentarily takes the lead as the world’s most valuable company, surpassing Microsoft.

  • Apple’s stock surged over 5%, reaching a market cap of $3.331 trillion.

  • Microsoft’s market value stands at $3.24 trillion, with Nvidia close behind.

  • Apple’s new AI model, Apple Intelligence, boosts investor enthusiasm, driving shares up by 7%.

  • Analysts view AI as a critical factor in Apple's future growth and competitive edge.

Arm Holdings Swing Trade

  • Entry Point: $161

  • Target Levels: 164, 167, 170, 175, 180, 185+

  • Stop Loss: $139

  • Catalyst: Arm Holdings replaces Sirius XM Holdings in the Nasdaq 100.

  • Reason for Trade: Technical breakout and expected buying from index funds and institutional investors.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.

‘til next time,

TradingLab