Good Morning!
🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup

This is arguably the single most consequential 72 hours of the entire year. May CPI drops at 8:30am ET this morning - with consensus expecting 4.2% year-over-year, up from April's already alarming 3.8%, which would mark the highest inflation reading since March 2023. Then SpaceX trades publicly on Nasdaq tomorrow as the largest IPO in history. Then Warsh's first FOMC meeting lands June 16-17 - with fed funds futures now pricing a rate hike as more likely than a cut by year-end.
The backdrop getting to today's number is brutal. The US launched fresh "self-defence strikes" against Iranian air defence sites after an American helicopter was downed overnight - shattering what remained of ceasefire optimism. Nasdaq futures are down 1.3% and S&P futures are down 0.9% this morning, following Friday's brutal session where the Nasdaq fell 4% as a semiconductor selloff wiped $1 trillion from markets and snapped the nine-week winning streak. Bitcoin is hovering near $61,000 - down nearly 28% since April's hot CPI print. The number at 8:30am this morning sets the tone for all of it.
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May CPI drops this morning - consensus 4.2%, highest since March 2023 - Economists expect headline CPI to accelerate to 4.2% year-over-year in May, up from April's 3.8%, with core CPI rising slightly to 2.9%. A hot print eliminates any 2026 rate cut probability and could force a hike discussion at Warsh's first FOMC meeting next week. This single number this morning changes everything for June.
US launches fresh strikes on Iran - helicopter downed overnight - The US military launched self-defence strikes against Iranian air defence sites after an American helicopter was downed, placing severe strain on the already fragile ceasefire and sending oil prices higher. Every time the peace deal looks close, another escalation resets the clock.
Nasdaq futures -1.3%, S&P futures -0.9% - second straight day of selling - Technology stocks are set to pull US equities lower for a second session as traders reduce exposure ahead of the inflation reading, with chipmakers experiencing a second bout of sharp swings in less than a week. The AI trade is taking the hits while inflation and geopolitics do the damage.
SpaceX debuts on Nasdaq tomorrow - $135/share, $1.77 trillion valuation - SpaceX is priced at $135 per share, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation and a $75 billion raise - making it the seventh-largest publicly traded company in the US by market cap, surpassing Tesla. The biggest IPO in history trades its first shares tomorrow morning. Whatever CPI does today sets the environment it walks into.
TSMC posts all-time record monthly revenue - up 30.1% year-over-year - TSMC's May 2026 monthly consolidated revenue reached NT$416.98 billion, a 30.1% year-on-year increase and 1.5% month-on-month growth, setting an all-time monthly record. The semiconductor demand story remains intact even as the stocks sell off.
Oracle and Adobe report earnings today - AI infrastructure in focus - Oracle and Adobe both report today, with investors focused on AI infrastructure trends and cloud growth commentary heading into Warsh's first FOMC next week. Two more data points on whether enterprise AI spending is holding up under macro pressure.
Warsh scraps dot plot - FOMC June 17 is the most important Fed meeting in years - Warsh may scrap the Fed's dot plot as soon as the June 16-17 meeting, his first as chair, with fed funds futures now pricing a rate hike - not a cut - as the more likely year-end move following consecutive hot inflation prints. The rules of Fed communication are about to change. Nobody knows what comes next.
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Bitcoin at $61K - needs CPI below 4.0% for any relief rally - Bitcoin is holding at $61,299 ahead of the CPI release, with 10x Research flagging that a sub-4.0% reading is needed to ease selling pressure. Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.89 billion in outflows in June 2026 alone. BTC is down 28% since April's hot inflation print. This morning's number decides whether that gets worse.
Hot CPI = $54K test. Cool CPI = relief rally. No middle ground. - If CPI comes in above 4.2%, Bitcoin risks testing $54,000 support. A softer reading could give BTC room for a relief rebound. Kalshi prediction markets show 47% of traders expecting 4.2% and 32% expecting 4.3%. The market is pricing hot. A miss to the downside would be explosive.
SpaceX IPO tomorrow = $1.29 billion in BTC entering public markets - SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC worth approximately $1.29 billion as of March 31, bringing that treasury into public markets Friday and potentially diverting $350 billion in fresh equity capital away from speculative assets like crypto. The IPO is both a Bitcoin catalyst and a Bitcoin headwind at the same time.
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