S&P 500 falls for third straight session - bond market is the story - The S&P 500 closed at 7,353 Tuesday, down 0.67%, while the 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.19% - its highest since 2007 - and the 10-year hit 4.657%, a 52-week high. The bond market is quietly repricing the entire rate outlook. When the 30-year hits levels not seen since 2007, equities have a problem.

Nvidia reports tonight - the number that decides the next month - Nvidia is expected to report $78.5 billion in Q1 FY2027 revenue and EPS of $1.75 after the close tonight. A beat is essentially priced in - the real market-mover will be forward guidance on Rubin architecture ramp timing and any commentary on China export restrictions following the Trump-Xi summit. 57 Buy ratings on the Street. A $269 consensus price target. The bar is sky high - and so is the risk if guidance disappoints.

Trump was "an hour away" from striking Iran - then called it off - Trump said he was "an hour away" from ordering new strikes on Iran but didn't proceed at the request of Persian Gulf allies, adding that "serious negotiations" are underway toward a peace deal. One hour away from a strike that would have sent oil to $130 and equities down 5%. The ceasefire is holding by the thinnest possible thread.

Iran threatens to expand conflict "beyond the region" - Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned Wednesday that if the US and Israel resume attacks against Tehran, "the regional war that was promised will this time be extended beyond the region." Not exactly the language of a country about to sign a peace deal.

SpaceX listing on Nasdaq June 12 - 5-for-1 stock split confirmed - SpaceX told investors it will implement a 5-for-1 stock split, reducing the share price from roughly $526 to $105, with the split completing by May 22 and the IPO targeting a June 12 Nasdaq listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation raising roughly $75 billion. The biggest IPO in history is three weeks away. Clear your calendar for June 12.

Target, Lowe's, TJX all report this morning - Target, Lowe's, TJX Companies, and Analog Devices all report before the open today, with Walmart following Thursday. The consumer retail picture this week will tell us whether $4+ gas and 3.8% inflation are actually hurting spending - or whether the American consumer is still shrugging it off.

30-year mortgage hits 6.68% - housing market quietly breaking - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.68% - its highest since July 2025 - as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.631%. Rates fell to 6% in February and the housing market briefly came alive. They're back at 6.68%. The window closed fast.

Semiconductor short position at largest since 2023 lows - ahead of Nvidia - Wolfe Research noted that large speculators in Nasdaq 100 futures have flipped to their largest net short position since the 2023 low ahead of Nvidia's earnings, saying a pullback should present a buying opportunity once it hits a localized bottom. The biggest short position in three years heading into the most important earnings of the year. If Nvidia beats and guides up, that short squeeze is violent.

Bitcoin holding $76-78K - Nvidia tonight decides the next move - Wintermute warned Tuesday that Bitcoin's recent rally was driven by leverage and short covering rather than sustained spot demand, and that Nvidia's earnings report could determine whether BTC holds $76-78K support or breaks toward the low $70,000s. Nvidia beats = risk-on = BTC bounces. Nvidia disappoints = risk-off = $75K gets tested fast. It really is that simple tonight.

Clarity Act progress "failed to lift market confidence" - regulation stalls - Clarity Act markup progress this week failed to meaningfully lift crypto market confidence, with indecision returning across the market as macro headwinds from rising yields and inflation dominated sentiment. The most anticipated crypto legislation of 2026 advancing in committee and the market barely moved. That tells you everything about where macro sits right now.

Bond yields at multi-decade highs = crypto's macro ceiling gets lower - The 20-year and 30-year Treasuries are now at their highest levels since 2007, while the 10-year is testing highs not seen since the Covid reopening - with CME FedWatch now showing rising odds of a rate hike rather than a cut. When the risk-free rate hits 19-year highs, the argument for holding Bitcoin gets harder to make to institutional allocators. This is the wall crypto is running into.

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