Good Morning!
🌡 TradingLab’s Headline Roundup
What a week for the bulls - and what a Friday morning wakeup call.
The S&P 500 hit 7,365.12 on Wednesday - a new all-time high - while the Nasdaq gained 2% and the Dow briefly crossed 50,000 for the first time ever, all on the back of a mid-week Iran deal optimism surge and an earnings season that keeps delivering. Then Thursday came and cooled things off slightly, and now Friday morning has arrived with two things happening simultaneously: the April jobs report dropping at 8:30am ET - with estimates ranging from 60,000 to 165,000 new payrolls after March's shock 178,000 beat - and oil spiking 2% overnight after the US and Iran exchanged fire again in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command said military forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes as three Navy destroyers transited the waterway. Peace deal optimism is still alive, but so is the war. That's the market we're in.
The earnings picture this week was genuinely impressive in places. AMD surged 19% on blowout guidance. Fortinet jumped 20% on a Q1 that demolished estimates. Corning soared 17% after announcing a partnership with Nvidia to build three optical manufacturing facilities - increasing US capacity tenfold and creating 3,000 jobs. On the other side of the ledger, Planet Fitness cratered 33%, Whirlpool fell 21% explicitly blaming the Iran war for crushing consumer confidence, and Snap dropped 8.5% on cautious guidance. Same market. Very different outcomes. That divergence is exactly what separates the traders who are positioned correctly from those who aren't.
Today's jobs number is the one to watch. A weak print gives the Fed cover to turn dovish and sends risk assets - equities and crypto - higher. A strong one keeps the "higher for longer, possible hike" scenario alive and caps the rally. Either way, the Warsh Fed era begins May 15. The old rules are changing.
🏛️ Stock Markets
S&P 500 hits 7,365 - Dow crosses 50,000 for the first time - The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 7,365 on Wednesday while the Dow briefly crossed 50,000, driven by Iran peace deal optimism and AMD's blowout earnings. From war lows to Dow 50K in six weeks. Respect the price action even when the macro looks messy.
US and Iran exchange fire overnight - oil back above $100 - US Central Command confirmed military forces intercepted unprovoked Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes as three Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight, sending WTI crude up 2% in extended trading to above $95. The peace deal is real. The war is also still real. Don't confuse the two.
April jobs report lands this morning - the number that decides May - April nonfarm payrolls are due at 8:30am ET with estimates around 60,000 - well below March's 178,000 beat. Job cuts rose to 83,387 in April from 60,620 in March, adding downside risk to the headline number. Weak print = Fed turns dovish = everything rallies. Strong print = hike risk returns = buckle up.
AMD surges 19% - the chip trade is back in full force - AMD's guidance-fuelled 19% surge led a broader semiconductor rally on Wednesday, with Micron, Lam Research, and peers all climbing sharply. After Nvidia guided China revenue to zero, the market needed AMD to deliver. It delivered.
Fortinet jumps 20% - the cybersecurity earnings beat nobody was ready for - Fortinet jumped around 17-20% after Q1 results came in far ahead of analyst expectations, with OT security billings up over 70% and free cash flow exceeding $1 billion in a single quarter. When a company beats by this margin, it's not luck. Something real is happening in that business.
Corning soars 17% on a monster Nvidia partnership - Corning announced three new advanced optical manufacturing facilities in North Carolina and Texas dedicated to Nvidia, increasing US optical capacity tenfold and creating at least 3,000 jobs. The AI infrastructure buildout is creating winners in places nobody expects. Corning makes glass. Now it's an AI play.
Planet Fitness craters 33% - the worst single day in the stock's history - Planet Fitness slashed its 2026 outlook and scrapped a planned price hike after New Year's signups came in light. The CEO admitted "we may have pivoted too far" in trying to court wealthier gym-goers, potentially alienating the budget-conscious members who built the brand. A brutal lesson in knowing your customer base.
Whirlpool falls 21% - explicitly blames the Iran war - Whirlpool missed earnings and revenue estimates and lowered full-year guidance, directly attributing the miss to a decline in consumer confidence caused by the war in Iran. This is the Iran war showing up in washing machine sales. The macro damage is broader than oil prices.
Citi announces $30 billion share buyback - Citigroup gained around 1.5% after announcing a $30 billion share repurchase program. Banks are printing cash and handing it back. The "credit collapse" crowd is going to be waiting a long time.
₿ Crypto
Bitcoin finally breaks $80K - the most important level of the year - Bitcoin futures worked their way above $80,000 to their highest level since January, though the area around the $83,700 average cost basis for spot ETF investors could act as resistance as holders look to cut losses or take profits. The gate is open. The next test is $83,700. Watch whether it holds or rejects.
Strategy reports $12.54 billion Q1 loss on Bitcoin paper losses - Strategy reported a $12.54 billion loss in Q1 2026 as Bitcoin fell from roughly $87,000 to $68,000 during the quarter. Paper losses on 818,334 BTC. The accumulation didn't stop. Whether that's genius or stubbornness depends entirely on where BTC trades in December.
Today's jobs number is the biggest single crypto catalyst of the week - A weaker-than-expected April payrolls print gives the Federal Reserve cover to cut sooner - which is the single biggest unlock for crypto in the near term. A strong print delays it further. One number at 8:30am this morning has more power over BTC's next move than any on-chain metric.
Warsh era begins May 15 - crypto's unknown macro variable - Fed presidents Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee speak today on central bank independence - the last major Fed communication before Jerome Powell formally exits and Kevin Warsh takes the chair on May 15. What Warsh does in his first 30 days sets the tone for the rest of 2026. For crypto, it's the macro wildcard nobody has a clean read on.
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My Best Month Ever - And I Barely Traded
Last month was the highest-performing month of my trading career.
That’s +$247,063.77 this month.
+16.79% in 30 days. You can see it right there in the chart above - a clean, steady climb from April 10 to May 6. No mystery. No luck. No hidden strategy I'm keeping to myself.
And here's the part that might surprise you: I barely touched the market.
Maybe 10 trades in the past year. All of them posted as I entered them in my Discord group. That's it. While retail traders were glued to their screens, revenge-trading every red candle, flipping between five signal groups and second-guessing every entry - I was sitting on my hands. Waiting. Being selective. Only pulling the trigger when prices were extremely attractive.
That's the hardest skill in trading to develop and the one that pays the most.
The biggest lie this industry sells you is that you need to be active to make money. You don't. You need to be right when it matters. A handful of well-timed, well-managed trades beats 200 mediocre ones every single time. The math is not complicated. The discipline to actually do it is.
This month I focused less on predicting the market and more on emotional discipline. I stopped trying to be clever. I waited for setups that were undeniable, managed the risk properly, and let the trades do the work. The result speaks for itself.
Patience and discipline will always beat trying to time the market perfectly. Always.
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🌡 Free Trading Resources
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Stay ahead, stay informed, and most importantly, stay profitable.
‘til next time,
TradingLab